11311 Cascading Stream Way · Sheldon, TX 77044

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2021 5,262 sqft lot $158/sqft · 17% below area Est $307k · 17% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting single story Houston home WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS featuring a bright living room w/vaulted ceilings that create an open and airy feel. The modern kitchen offers bar seating and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, making it perfect for entertaining or casual gatherings. The spacious primary bedroom is private & includes an ensuite bath with dual sinks and a walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The fully fenced yard has a covered patio & plenty of green space for outdoor enjoyment. You'll love the natural light and location this home has to offer. Situated in a well-connected community, this home offers convenient access to local shopping, dining & entertainment. Neighborhood park, trails & recreational areas provide opportunities for outdoor activities, while major roadways make commuting throughout Houston & the surrounding area simple & efficient.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Spacious lot
• Covered patio

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-584 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,045 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.82%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,563
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -13.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11111 Rose River Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	3mo	$315,785	$200	85
11118 Rose River Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	4mo	$295,990	$187	80
11130 Rose River Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	5mo	$296,890	$188	79
11139 Gardenia Creek Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	13mo	$333,380	$211	72
11123 Snapdragon Field Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-4%)	17mo	$314,715	$204	71
15315 Peonies Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-8%)	17mo	$316,915	$213	65
11023 West Fall Fern Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-4%)	19mo	$307,000	$199	63
11814 Padok Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,620 (+0%)	19mo	$218,000	$135	56
15419 Winding Boardwalk Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,773 (+10%)	19mo	$250,000	$141	53
15707 Sheldon Ridge Way	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+11%)	8mo	$215,000	$120	50
15914 Dunman Ln	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,674 (+4%)	14mo	$199,500	$119	49
15511 Long Rd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+14%)	6mo	$380,000	$206	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-66,914
• Equity at exit: $54,439

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-107,219
• Equity at exit: $51,320

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$700 /mo · $8,402/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,757

Max offer price $168,045

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $254,900 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $264,900 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $264,900 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,900 Active 171 DOM
10. 2025-12-11
    listed $264,900 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting single story Houston home WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS featuring a bright living room w/vaulted ceilings that create an open and airy feel. The modern kitchen offers bar seating and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, making it perfect for entertaining or casual gatherings. The spacious primary bedroom is private & includes an ensuite bath with dual sinks and a walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The fully fenced yard has a covered patio & plenty of green space for outdoor enjoyment. You'll love the natural light and location this home has to offer. Situated in a well-connected community, this home offers convenient access to local shopping, dining & entertainment. Neighborhood park, trails & recreational areas provide opportunities for outdoor activities, while major roadways make commuting throughout Houston & the surrounding area simple & efficient.

11. 2025-11-07
    historical
12. 2025-05-17
    listed $269,900 Active
13. 2025-05-16
    historical
14. 2022-07-13
    historical
15. 2022-07-08
    listed $308,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,402 · $700/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,402 · $700/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$8,402
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$11,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,749
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sheldon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2022-07-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-08 Listed $308,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+87.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,402 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.