no road Yentna Riv · Susitna, AK 99688

$165,000

1 bd · None ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Built 1992 Poor condition 8.65 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.4/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantstic cabin. site. Close to the river and the lake. Great hunting spot. good trapping in the area.

Key facts

• Hunting location
• View of mt mckinley
• Fishing spot

Tags

• SHORE OF THE YENTNA RIVER
• VIEW OF MT MCKINLEY
• HUNTING LOCATION
• FISHING SPOT
• SANDBAR FOR LANDING A PLANE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-891/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 28/100 on livability (#334 in AK) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $678 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-463 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 1275% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,940 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,701
• Equity at exit: $45,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,036
• Equity at exit: $53,016

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99688

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $154,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-17	+0% $-74	+5% $-131	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-128	+0% $-74	+5% $-21	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-32	base $-74	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-03-03
    listed $12,000 Active 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    Fantstic cabin. site. Close to the river and the lake. Great hunting spot. good trapping in the area.

17. 2026-02-27
    listed $165,000 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Nice cabin on the shore of the Yentna River only about 1 mile above the Big Bend. Fantastic view of Mt Mckinley. Easy access from the Yentna to the cabin. Good hunting location and fantastic fishing spot just across the river. Sandbar on the other side of river is usually open for landing a plane, and when water is low there is a good one on. the cabin side of the river.

18. 2026-02-08
    listed $498,000 Active
19. 2025-10-02
    price $695,000
20. 2025-09-24
    status Active
21. 2025-09-24
    price $739,000
22. 2025-01-23
    listed $749,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,741
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$898
• After-tax cash flow: $7/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is in poor condition and requires extensive repairs and renovations to become habitable and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — The siding is peeling and the structure appears unstable.
• Major interior walls — The interior is cluttered and appears unfinished, indicating significant work is needed to make it habitable.
• Major roof — The roof is not visible, but the overall condition of the exterior suggests it may be in poor condition.
• Major flooring — The flooring is not visible, but the overall condition of the interior suggests it is not in good shape.
• Major systems — No systems are visible in the photos, but the overall condition of the property suggests they may be in poor condition.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is minimal and in poor condition, indicating significant work is needed to improve the curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both renovate and improve the interior — A renovation would improve the interior and make the property more habitable, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both repair and replace the siding — Repairing and replacing the siding would improve the exterior and increase the property's curb appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both repair and replace the roof — Repairing and replacing the roof would improve the overall condition of the property and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace the flooring — Repairing and replacing the flooring would improve the interior and make the property more habitable, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both repair and replace the systems — Repairing and replacing the systems would improve the overall condition of the property and increase its value.
• Both improve the landscaping — Improving the landscaping would enhance the curb appeal and increase the property's value, both for resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · The siding is peeling and the structure appears unstable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The interior is cluttered and appears unfinished, indicating significant work is needed to make it habitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof is not visible, but the overall condition of the exterior suggests it may be in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring is not visible, but the overall condition of the interior suggests it is not in good shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No systems are visible in the photos, but the overall condition of the property suggests they may be in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is minimal and in poor condition, indicating significant work is needed to improve the curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both renovate and improve the interior — A renovation would improve the interior and make the property more habitable, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the siding — Repairing and replacing the siding would improve the exterior and increase the property's curb appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the roof — Repairing and replacing the roof would improve the overall condition of the property and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the flooring — Repairing and replacing the flooring would improve the interior and make the property more habitable, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the systems — Repairing and replacing the systems would improve the overall condition of the property and increase its value. ↑
• Both improve the landscaping — Improving the landscaping would enhance the curb appeal and increase the property's value, both for resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Susitna

• Score: 28/100
• State rank: #334
• US rank: #27965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,542

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Current HPI: 168.6582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $12,000 AKMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $165,000 AKMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $498,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $695,000 AKMLS
• 2025-09-24 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $739,000 AKMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $749,000 AKMLS