5626 Morant Bay Path · Poinciana, FL 34758

$325,540

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Land · 113 Days on market

Built 2025 5,227 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Introducing the new and exciting Sentosa! This elegant four-bedroom home provides convenient single-story living. An open-concept floorplan maximizes interior space and encourages seamless transitions between a modern kitchen, elegant dining room and comfortable family room. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, while a luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Westview is a master-planned community in Poinciana, FL. This amenity-rich, pet-friendly community has something for residents of all ages to enjoy, including a swimming pool, dog park, clubhouse and sports fie

Key facts

• Single-story living
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LUXURIOUS OWNER SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $326k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-396 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poinciana Academy of Fine Arts (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,015 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 632 students, 66% FRL); Discovery Intermediate School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 898 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 612 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $240,953 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.22%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-83,092
• Equity at exit: $48,539

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-124,894
• Equity at exit: $28,147

Cash invested: $91,151 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,883/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,911

Max offer price $268,208

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-171	-5% $-284	+0% $-396	+5% $-509	+10% $-621
Rent	-10% $-587	-5% $-491	+0% $-396	+5% $-301	+10% $-206
Rate	-1.0pp $-232	-0.5pp $-313	base $-396	+0.5pp $-481	+1.0pp $-566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,385
• Closing costs: $9,766
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5603 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	9d	1	0.02mi
5620 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	25d	1	0.02mi
5602 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,250	$1.58	9d	1	0.03mi
5626 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	9d	1	0.03mi
5524 Morant Bay Path Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	0.03mi
5639 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,500	$1.31	25d	1	0.04mi
5548 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	0.11mi
5548 Morant Bay Path Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	0d	1	0.12mi
5530 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,550	$1.17	25d	1	0.14mi
5525 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	0.15mi
5513 Pimenta Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	16d	1	0.26mi
4269 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,100	$1.34	25d	1	0.36mi
4271 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,200	$1.40	25d	1	0.36mi
4251 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$1,890	$1.21	4d	1	0.36mi
4325 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,000	$1.28	25d	1	0.37mi
662 Brockton Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1632	$1,920	$1.18	3d	1	0.44mi
662 Brockton Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$1,920	$1.18	25d	1	0.44mi
4505 Ochos Rios Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,100	$1.12	25d	1	0.50mi
604 Basingstoke Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1739	$1,945	$1.12	25d	1	0.54mi
5665 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,350	$1.27	25d	1	0.77mi
5640 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,190	$1.37	25d	1	0.79mi
5652 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1853	$2,390	$1.29	25d	1	0.79mi
5750 Gingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1940	$2,350	$1.21	25d	1	0.82mi
5781 Gingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,390	$1.23	25d	1	0.84mi
5625 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	6d	1	0.90mi
4763 Guinep Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,300	$1.22	16d	1	0.90mi
5456 Le Marin Way Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,000	$1.08	25d	1	0.91mi
4799 Guinep Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,200	$1.51	16d	1	0.95mi
4799 Guinep Ln Unit 4799 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,200	$1.51	9d	1	0.95mi
102 Brixham Ct Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.97mi
5803 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,000	$1.29	19d	1	0.98mi
5794 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1881	$2,400	$1.28	25d	1	1.00mi
2511 Skyline Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1834	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	1.01mi
2452 Skyline Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,900	$1.03	25d	1	1.02mi
5822 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,895	$1.31	5d	1	1.02mi
2500 Skyline Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1689	$1,990	$1.18	25d	1	1.03mi
131 Barrington Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,250	$1.35	25d	1	1.04mi
4814 Yellow Elder Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,300	$1.06	18d	1	1.04mi
122 Barrington Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,819	$1.24	0d	1	1.05mi
2550 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	1873	$2,300	$1.23	23d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $325,540
3. 2026-03-25
   price $345,540
4. 2026-03-17
   price $339,540
5. 2026-03-06
   price $334,540
6. 2026-02-20
   status Active
7. 2026-02-20
   price $346,540
8. 2026-01-11
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-06
   price $329,540
10. 2025-12-16
    soldstatus $4,356,531
11. 2025-11-11
    listed $352,540 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,235
• − Property taxes: −$4,883
• − Insurance: −$1,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,470
• Taxable loss: −$10,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $325,540 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $345,540 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $339,540 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $334,540 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $346,540 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $329,540 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $4,356,531 Public Records
• 2025-11-11 Listed $352,540 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid