15014 Lake Shore Ave · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$420,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2022 0.28 ac lot $163/sqft · 14% below area Est $488k · 14% under $66/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! **LENNAR IS NOW IN LAKES OF CHAMPIONS!!! Lennar's "Giallo III" Plan with Brick/Stone Elevation "E" in Lakes of Champions! A two-story home with a coveted Next Gen design that features an expansive home office suite, complete with a private bathroom and built-in coffee bar. In the main home, an open design is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen, with an attached covered patio. The owner’s suite is situated for privacy at the end of the home, while upstairs hosts an airy loft and additional bedroom. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022*

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Versatile loft
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• ENSUITE WITH SOAKING TUB
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Lakes/Champions - Prestige; Annual association fee of $795; Association covers common areas and recreation facilities; Community pool, playground, park, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces northwest
• Construction: Built in 2022; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Pond on lot; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Vanity; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fan(s); Loft; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-583 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.6% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El North (math 77% / reading 70%, grade A, #95 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 856 students, 30% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle North (math 68% / reading 62%, grade A-, #102 of 1,662 statewide, top 6%, 525 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 10% FRL vs 28% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,974 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $488,317
• List price: $420,000
• Delta: -13.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14910 Lake Shore Ave	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,504 (-2%)	2mo	$450,000	$180	86
9607 Mystic Way	0.23mi	4/3.5	2,660 (+4%)	1mo	$480,000	$180	81
14814 Buffalo Head St	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,538 (-1%)	1mo	$464,990	$183	81
9718 Colonial Downs Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,675 (+4%)	1mo	$510,000	$191	78
14815 Mission Ave	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,677 (+4%)	1mo	$439,000	$164	70
14806 Buffalo Head St	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,399 (-7%)	1mo	$454,990	$190	68
10023 Goliad Dr	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,674 (+4%)	2mo	$374,990	$140	64
9914 Red Knot Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,677 (+4%)	1mo	$486,090	$182	63
14819 Mission Ave	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,734 (+6%)	2mo	$399,990	$146	60
9922 Red Knot St	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,734 (+6%)	2mo	$419,990	$154	59
7111 Hillside Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,216 (-14%)	1mo	$389,000	$176	57
14827 Mission Ave	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,316 (-10%)	1mo	$444,424	$192	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-103,593
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-131,391
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$732 /mo · $8,786/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$66
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $-583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,020

Max offer price $316,974

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-345	-5% $-464	+0% $-583	+5% $-702	+10% $-821
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-713	+0% $-583	+5% $-454	+10% $-324
Rate	-1.0pp $-372	-0.5pp $-476	base $-583	+0.5pp $-692	+1.0pp $-803

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9922 Red Knot ST Mont Belvieu, TX	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,399	$1.33	26d	1	0.53mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $66 · $792/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $420,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $420,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    status Active 992-char remark
16. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 992-char remark
17. 2026-04-13
    price $420,000 992-char remark
18. 2026-03-23
    price $474,900 992-char remark
19. 2026-03-22
    price $489,900 992-char remark
20. 2026-02-20
    listed $499,900 Active 992-char remark
21. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus Sold 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    NEW! **LENNAR IS NOW IN LAKES OF CHAMPIONS!!! Lennar's "Giallo III" Plan with Brick/Stone Elevation "E" in Lakes of Champions! A two-story home with a coveted Next Gen design that features an expansive home office suite, complete with a private bathroom and built-in coffee bar. In the main home, an open design is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen, with an attached covered patio. The owner’s suite is situated for privacy at the end of the home, while upstairs hosts an airy loft and additional bedroom. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022*

22. 2022-04-27
    status Pending 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    NEW! **LENNAR IS NOW IN LAKES OF CHAMPIONS!!! Lennar's "Giallo III" Plan with Brick/Stone Elevation "E" in Lakes of Champions! A two-story home with a coveted Next Gen design that features an expansive home office suite, complete with a private bathroom and built-in coffee bar. In the main home, an open design is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen, with an attached covered patio. The owner’s suite is situated for privacy at the end of the home, while upstairs hosts an airy loft and additional bedroom. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022*

23. 2022-04-05
    price $445,999 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    NEW! **LENNAR IS NOW IN LAKES OF CHAMPIONS!!! Lennar's "Giallo III" Plan with Brick/Stone Elevation "E" in Lakes of Champions! A two-story home with a coveted Next Gen design that features an expansive home office suite, complete with a private bathroom and built-in coffee bar. In the main home, an open design is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen, with an attached covered patio. The owner’s suite is situated for privacy at the end of the home, while upstairs hosts an airy loft and additional bedroom. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022*

24. 2022-03-29
    price $440,999 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    NEW! **LENNAR IS NOW IN LAKES OF CHAMPIONS!!! Lennar's "Giallo III" Plan with Brick/Stone Elevation "E" in Lakes of Champions! A two-story home with a coveted Next Gen design that features an expansive home office suite, complete with a private bathroom and built-in coffee bar. In the main home, an open design is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen, with an attached covered patio. The owner’s suite is situated for privacy at the end of the home, while upstairs hosts an airy loft and additional bedroom. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022*

25. 2022-03-22
    price $435,999 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    NEW! **LENNAR IS NOW IN LAKES OF CHAMPIONS!!! Lennar's "Giallo III" Plan with Brick/Stone Elevation "E" in Lakes of Champions! A two-story home with a coveted Next Gen design that features an expansive home office suite, complete with a private bathroom and built-in coffee bar. In the main home, an open design is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen, with an attached covered patio. The owner’s suite is situated for privacy at the end of the home, while upstairs hosts an airy loft and additional bedroom. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022*

26. 2022-03-10
    listed $430,999 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    NEW! **LENNAR IS NOW IN LAKES OF CHAMPIONS!!! Lennar's "Giallo III" Plan with Brick/Stone Elevation "E" in Lakes of Champions! A two-story home with a coveted Next Gen design that features an expansive home office suite, complete with a private bathroom and built-in coffee bar. In the main home, an open design is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen, with an attached covered patio. The owner’s suite is situated for privacy at the end of the home, while upstairs hosts an airy loft and additional bedroom. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022*

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,786 · $732/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,786 · $732/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$8,786
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,150
• − Management: −$3,150
• − HOA: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$14,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,443
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $420,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $420,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $474,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $489,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $499,900 HARMLS
• 2022-07-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-05 Price Changed $445,999 HARMLS
• 2022-03-29 Price Changed $440,999 HARMLS
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $435,999 HARMLS
• 2022-03-10 Listed $430,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+86.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,786 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.