7600 Millcreek Dr · Manchester, VA 23235

$175,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1974 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is being sold through a virtual auction. The list price does not reflect the final sale price. There is a 10% buyer’s premium added to the high bid. Property will be sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. The virtual auction is hosted on the listing company website and will end May 28th @ 2 PM. Please review all terms and conditions on the website. Seller will consider pre-auction offers. Estate sale opportunity in the heart of North Chesterfield’s highly sought-after 23235 zip code. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers approximately 2,584 square feet on a spacious 0.40-acre lot and presents exceptional upside for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants looking to build equity.

Key facts

• Strong bones
• Spacious lot
• 0.4 acre lot

Tags

• HIGHLY SOUGHT-AFTER ZIP CODE
• SPACIOUS LOT
• STRONG BONES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Frame construction; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Porch; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Wood; Partially carpeted; Vinyl; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Full baths include tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Skylight(s); Bedroom on main level; Dining area; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Skylights
• Laundry & utility: Central water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 4.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#101 in VA, #3,202 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,648/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($96k/yr) (locally 764% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $150k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.72%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $434,112
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7419 Sandlewood Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,648 (+2%)	2mo	$445,000	$168	82
2108 Ives Ln	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,700 (+4%)	2mo	$415,000	$154	73
8100 Elmart Ct	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,634 (+2%)	8mo	$430,000	$163	68
7432 Sandlewood Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,320 (-10%)	5mo	$415,000	$179	68
1809 Elmart Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,596 (+0%)	3mo	$450,000	$173	66
2340 Lancashire Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,464 (-5%)	1mo	$435,000	$177	64
1416 Chevelle Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,322 (-10%)	7mo	$380,000	$164	64
1306 Old Log Trl	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,484 (-4%)	1mo	$395,000	$159	61
7400 Cheltenham Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,222 (-14%)	1mo	$460,000	$207	60
1413 Turnmill Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,208 (-15%)	4mo	$429,000	$194	59
2224 Lancashire Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,246 (-13%)	5mo	$375,000	$167	55
2144 Lake Surrey Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,935 (+14%)	6mo	$485,000	$165	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $72,000
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $203,208
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23235

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,724/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $1,515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,614	-5% $1,564	+0% $1,515	+5% $1,465	+10% $1,415
Rent	-10% $1,226	-5% $1,370	+0% $1,515	+5% $1,659	+10% $1,803
Rate	-1.0pp $1,603	-0.5pp $1,559	base $1,515	+0.5pp $1,469	+1.0pp $1,423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7419 Kajenson Dr North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.5	2294	$3,500	$1.53	44d	1	0.46mi
8501 Woodward Dr North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,200	$1.20	24d	1	1.06mi
8749 Bethany Creek Ave Unit 1546152P Richmond, VA	5.0	2.0	2098	$5,433	$2.59	20d	1	1.22mi
311 Karl Linn Dr North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1271	$3,416	$2.69	2d	21	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-05-18
   listed $175,000 Active
4. 2001-05-21
   soldstatus $149,950
5. 1986-06-17
   soldstatus $93,575
6. 1977-10-27
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,724 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,724 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,724
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,502
• − Management: −$3,502
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $16,482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,956
• After-tax cash flow: $14,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #3202

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 33,461
• Household income: $96,083
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 764.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.72%
• Current HPI: 294.1809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+169.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $175,000 CVRMLS
• 2001-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $149,950 Public Records
• 1986-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $93,575 Public Records
• 1977-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,724 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.