415 Jr Ave · Belton, MO 64012

$63,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 97 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this stunning 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-wide designed with today's style and comfort in mind. From the moment you walk in, you'll notice the clean lines, modern finishes, and bright, open layout that make this home feel both cozy and elevated. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into a beautifully designed kitchen featuring contemporary cabinetry, updated fixtures, and plenty of storage. Every detail has been thoughtfully selected to create a fresh, modern aesthetic. The primary suite offers a private retreat with its own full bathroom, while the second bedroom and bath provide the perfect setup for guests, family, or a home office. Low-maintenance, energy-efficient, and

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 96 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 415 Jr Ave, Belton, MO 64012; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-04-28
• Financial info: List price: $63,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec-built home; Plan: 2x2
• Construction: Living area approximately 960
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 4.7% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#52 in MO, #3,782 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Belton 124 (suburban): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #216 of 324 in MO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $57,330 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.98%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $32,089
• Equity at exit: $9,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $91,384
• Equity at exit: $5,447

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64012

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$79 /mo · $945/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6007 E 152nd St Grandview, MO	1.0	1.0	580	$725	$1.25	4d	1	0.61mi
6003 E 151st Ter Unit A Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$975	$1.50	44d	1	0.65mi
6205 E 152 Ter Unit B Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	550	$850	$1.55	7d	1	0.67mi
15319 Grand Summit Ext Grandview, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,150	$1.41	44d	1	0.83mi
6302 E 149th Ter Grandview, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,445	$1.40	24d	1	1.11mi
6410 E 149th Ter Grandview, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	44d	1	1.23mi
6311 E 148th Ter Grandview, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	24d	1	1.28mi
6407 E 163rd St Belton, MO	1.0	1.0	782	$1,492	$1.91	2d	4	1.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $63,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $63,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $63,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $63,000 Active 94 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$945
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $6,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,634
• After-tax cash flow: $5,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton 124
• NCES district ID: 2904620
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,946
• Composite: 29.73/100
• National rank: #6446
• State rank: #216 of 324 in MO

Livability — Belton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #3782

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belton, MO
• County: Cass County · 65,358 people
• City population: 29,304
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 29,304
• Household income: $71,814
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,292 people
• By 2030: 106,109 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 105,786 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 102,062 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 88,569 · -15.9%
• By 2100: 68,293 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.3% · R 65.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -244.76%
• Current HPI: 214.6157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B