34 Terry Cir #34 · Cottonwood, AZ 86326

$111,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1999 Fair condition Est $120k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is ready for you to pick your favorite carpet. Pine Shadows is 55+ community and is gated. We have a swimming pool Booce courts and exercise room. New AC 9/12/23.

Key facts

• Exercise room
• Swimming pool
• Gated

Tags

• PINE SHADOWS COMMUNITY
• GATED
• SWIMMING POOL
• EXERCISE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private heated spa
• HOA & community: Land lease of $820 per month; No association fees listed; Community pool; Community spa; Golf; Pickleball courts; Transportation services

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (attached); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Private street access; On-site storage; Desert front and desert back landscaping; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Dual-pane windows; Refrigerator; Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $111k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.8% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,179/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 894% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.84%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2050 W State Route 89a -- #181	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+1%)	0mo	$120,000	$99	89
2050 W St Rte 89a #251	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	9mo	$120,000	$100	82
2050 W State Route 89a -- #177	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (-1%)	9mo	$105,000	$88	76
2050 W State Route 89a -- #86	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	2mo	$35,000	$26	70
2050 W State Route 89-a -- #92	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	4mo	$145,000	$108	69
2050 State Route 89a -- #377	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-9%)	1mo	$109,000	$100	69
2050 W State Route 89a -- #158	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+11%)	5mo	$130,000	$97	67
2050 W State Route 89a #19	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	15mo	$143,000	$115	66
2050 W State Route 89a Hwy #51	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-9%)	4mo	$125,000	$115	65
2050 W State Route 89a, Lot 21 -- #21	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (-15%)	6mo	$68,000	$66	58
2050 W State Route 89a -- #152	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+12%)	0mo	$205,000	$153	56
511 Mingus Shadows Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (+10%)	3mo	$262,500	$198	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $36,425
• Equity at exit: $16,550

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $85,421
• Equity at exit: $9,597

Cash invested: $31,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86326

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $111,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,031	-5% $992	+0% $954	+5% $916	+10% $877
Rent	-10% $782	-5% $868	+0% $954	+5% $1,040	+10% $1,126
Rate	-1.0pp $1,010	-0.5pp $982	base $954	+0.5pp $925	+1.0pp $896

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,750
• Closing costs: $3,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 N 2nd St Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	1.0	752	$1,305	$1.74	21d	1	1.13mi
1910 W Trail Blazer Dr Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,900	$2.27	14d	1	1.15mi
844 Tiablanca Rd Clarkdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,995	$1.50	14d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $111,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $111,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $111,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $111,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $111,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 173-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $111,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,218
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − Depreciation: −$3,229
• Taxable income: $10,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,471
• After-tax cash flow: $8,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed, particularly in landscaping and interior paint. It has potential for increased value with simple improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Dry and sparse landscaping needs attention.
• Minor Interior paint — Some wear on the walls, could benefit from touch-ups.
• Minor Appliances — Standard appliances, could be replaced for a fresh look.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value.
• Both Appliances — Modern appliances can attract more renters and buyers, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Dry and sparse landscaping needs attention.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior paint · Some wear on the walls, could benefit from touch-ups.	Minor	$500–3,000
Appliances · Standard appliances, could be replaced for a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both Appliances — Modern appliances can attract more renters and buyers, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487)
• NCES district ID: 0402370
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,740
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8822
• State rank: #174 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cottonwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 24,852
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 24,852
• Household income: $57,378
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.27%
• Current HPI: 347.5058
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.22%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $111,000 ARMLS