6 Norwalk Ln · Selden, NY 11784

$499,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1963 9,583 sqft lot $312/sqft · 21% below area Est $632k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 6 Norwalk Lane in Selden; a charming three-bedroom ranch full of potential. This home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout and a full basement, with outside entrance, offering plenty of additional space and storage. Step outside to enjoy the lovely large, level backyard-perfect for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing. Make this home your own while enjoying all the amenities the North Shore has to offer including shopping, wineries, beaches and convenient access to major highways, the railroad, LI Ferry, and airports.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Full basement
• Large level backyard

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• LARGE LEVEL BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $414k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $398k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#637 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $248k; list at $500k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $398,080 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $632,213
• List price: $499,999
• Delta: -20.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
382 Boyle Rd	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,550 (-3%)	2mo	$540,000	$348	74
373 Magnolia Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-10%)	3mo	$585,000	$406	72
155 Stuyvesant Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-6%)	9mo	$545,000	$363	71
7 Deville Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (0%)	4mo	$620,000	$388	68
38 Charter Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-6%)	8mo	$525,000	$350	67
29 Rush St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-1%)	2mo	$628,000	$397	66
43 Rush St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,723 (+8%)	3mo	$576,000	$334	48
6 Anne Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,801 (+13%)	0mo	$612,500	$340	47
1 Chuck Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-7%)	7mo	$590,000	$398	47
8 Corvette Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-9%)	5mo	$565,000	$388	46
93 Holiday Park Dr	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,480 (-8%)	8mo	$635,000	$429	45
7 Majestic Rd	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,833 (+15%)	6mo	$635,000	$346	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-111,765
• Equity at exit: $74,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-136,445
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11784

• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$800 /mo · $9,597/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$836
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,595

Max offer price $414,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-202	-5% $-344	+0% $-485	+5% $-627	+10% $-768
Rent	-10% $-800	-5% $-643	+0% $-485	+5% $-328	+10% $-171
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-358	base $-485	+0.5pp $-615	+1.0pp $-747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Nostrand Ave Selden, NY	4.0	2.0	2055	$4,250	$2.07	2d	1	0.51mi
52 Huron St Port Jefferson Station, NY	3.0	2.0	2161	$4,350	$2.01	2d	1	0.65mi
11 Oak Pl Selden, NY	4.0	2.0	1976	$4,200	$2.13	22d	1	0.72mi
128 Village Green Dr Unit 128 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1750	$3,330	$1.90	25d	1	1.27mi
187 Village Green Dr Unit 187 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1958	$3,905	$1.99	5d	1	1.29mi
162 Village Green Dr Unit 162 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1376	$3,440	$2.50	25d	1	1.33mi
300 Village Green Dr Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1628	$3,705	$2.28	2d	1	1.35mi
143 Village Green Dr Unit 143 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1466	$3,940	$2.69	2d	1	1.40mi
10 Todd Ct Port Jefferson Station, NY	4.0	2.5	2217	$4,500	$2.03	19d	1	1.40mi
131 Village Green Dr Unit 131 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1481	$3,755	$2.54	17d	1	1.41mi
68 Village Green Dr Unit 68 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1656	$3,515	$2.12	22d	1	1.43mi
303 Arrowhead Ln Centereach, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1289	$4,975	$3.86	2d	16	1.44mi
46 Village Green Dr Unit 46 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1381	$4,100	$2.97	5d	1	1.45mi
109 Village Green Dr Unit 109 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1481	$3,695	$2.49	2d	1	1.46mi
98 Village Green Dr Unit 98 Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	2.0	1466	$3,585	$2.45	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   Welcome home to 6 Norwalk Lane in Selden; a charming three-bedroom ranch full of potential. This home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout and a full basement, with outside entrance, offering plenty of additional space and storage. Step outside to enjoy the lovely large, level backyard-perfect for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing. Make this home your own while enjoying all the amenities the North Shore has to offer including shopping, wineries, beaches and convenient access to major highways, the railroad, LI Ferry, and airports.

2. 2026-04-22
   listed $499,999 Active 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   Welcome home to 6 Norwalk Lane in Selden; a charming three-bedroom ranch full of potential. This home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout and a full basement, with outside entrance, offering plenty of additional space and storage. Step outside to enjoy the lovely large, level backyard-perfect for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing. Make this home your own while enjoying all the amenities the North Shore has to offer including shopping, wineries, beaches and convenient access to major highways, the railroad, LI Ferry, and airports.

3. 2017-01-13
   soldstatus $248,000
4. 2016-12-16
   soldstatus $248,000 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Wonderful Updated Kitchen With Gas Cooking, Granite. Updated Bath. Hardwood Floors. New Siding. Andersen Windows. Full Unfinished Basement With Outside Entrance. Mid-Block Location In A Quiet Neighborhood., Additional information: Appearance:Mint++

5. 2016-12-16
   soldstatus $248,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Wonderful Updated Kitchen With Gas Cooking, Granite. Updated Bath. Hardwood Floors. New Siding. Andersen Windows. Full Unfinished Basement With Outside Entrance. Mid-Block Location In A Quiet Neighborhood., Additional information: Appearance:Mint++

6. 2016-11-07
   status Under Contract
7. 2016-10-10
   listed $250,000 New

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Wonderful Updated Kitchen With Gas Cooking, Granite. Updated Bath. Hardwood Floors. New Siding. Andersen Windows. Full Unfinished Basement With Outside Entrance. Mid-Block Location In A Quiet Neighborhood., Additional information: Appearance:Mint++

8. 2016-10-10
   listed $250,000 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Wonderful Updated Kitchen With Gas Cooking, Granite. Updated Bath. Hardwood Floors. New Siding. Andersen Windows. Full Unfinished Basement With Outside Entrance. Mid-Block Location In A Quiet Neighborhood., Additional information: Appearance:Mint++

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,597 · $800/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,597 · $800/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$9,597
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,822
• − Management: −$3,822
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$14,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,486
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Selden

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #637
• US rank: #11887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Selden, NY
• City population: 25,986
• Population (ZIP): 25,986

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -609.27%
• Current HPI: 381.2659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $248,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-16 Sold (MLS) $248,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-16 Sold (MLS) $248,000 MLSLI
• 2016-11-07 Pending — MLSLI
• 2016-10-10 Listed $250,000 MLSLI
• 2016-10-10 Listed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,597 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.