2048 Woodtrail Dr · Fairfield, OH 45014

$145,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Condo public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1984 ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice condo within walking distance to the Fairfield Aquatic Center and Fairfield Trace Golf Course. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets and some new appliances. Very reasonable HOA fee.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Modern cabinets
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN CABINETS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#298 in OH, #4,818 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fairfield City (suburban): math 47% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #400 of 656 in OH (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $137,950 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-24,744
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,147
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45014

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,047/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$190
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,390

Max offer price $143,539

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $33	+0% $-8	+5% $-49	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-63	+0% $-8	+5% $46	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $29	base $-8	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Knollridge Ct Fairfield, OH	2.0–3.0	2.0	993	$1,495	$1.51	2d	1	0.14mi
5456 Eastgate Dr Fairfield, OH	1.0	1.0	675	$975	$1.44	8d	1	1.32mi
1400 Sherwood Dr Fairfield, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$1,528	$1.92	2d	23	1.45mi
35 Wesleyan Ct Unit Basement Fairfield, OH	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	13d	1	1.48mi
35 Wesleyan Ct Unit Basement Fairfield, OH	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   listed $145,000 Active
6. 2026-03-23
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Very nice condo within walking distance to the Fairfield Aquatic Center and Fairfield Trace Golf Course. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets and some new appliances. Very reasonable HOA fee.

7. 2026-03-20
   soldstatus $125,000 Sold 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Very nice condo within walking distance to the Fairfield Aquatic Center and Fairfield Trace Golf Course. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets and some new appliances. Very reasonable HOA fee.

8. 2026-01-30
   historical Contingency Pending 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Very nice condo within walking distance to the Fairfield Aquatic Center and Fairfield Trace Golf Course. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets and some new appliances. Very reasonable HOA fee.

9. 2026-01-30
   status Pending 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Very nice condo within walking distance to the Fairfield Aquatic Center and Fairfield Trace Golf Course. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets and some new appliances. Very reasonable HOA fee.

10. 2026-01-28
    listed $125,000 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Very nice condo within walking distance to the Fairfield Aquatic Center and Fairfield Trace Golf Course. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets and some new appliances. Very reasonable HOA fee.

11. 2026-01-28
    listed $125,000 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Very nice condo within walking distance to the Fairfield Aquatic Center and Fairfield Trace Golf Course. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets and some new appliances. Very reasonable HOA fee.

12. 1992-04-20
    soldstatus $40,000
13. 1985-10-01
    soldstatus $226,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,655 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$607/yr (+$51/mo · 58.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,047
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − HOA: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$597
• After-tax cash flow: $498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield City
• NCES district ID: 3904610
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,755
• Composite: 45.02/100
• National rank: #2696
• State rank: #400 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #4818

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 45,773
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 45,773
• Household income: $75,661
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.24%
• Current HPI: 237.4633
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-36.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-23 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-20 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-01-30 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2026-01-30 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $125,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $125,000 Dayton MLS
• 1992-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $226,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,047 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.