849 County Road 3216 · Jacksonville, TX 75766

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1963

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country charm with acreage! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features 1,340 sq ft and sits on 5.6 fenced acres just outside town. The remodeled primary bedroom adds a modern touch, and most windows have been replaced. Fiber internet is available, making this property perfect for those who want peaceful country living without sacrificing connectivity. With a little TLC, this property could truly shine. Plenty of room for animals, outdoor projects, or simply enjoying wide open space.

Key facts

• Replaced windows
• Fiber internet
• Fenced acres

Tags

• REMODELED PRIMARY BEDROOM
• REPLACED WINDOWS
• FIBER INTERNET
• FENCED ACRES
• ROOM FOR ANIMALS
• WIDE OPEN SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Single story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s) for cooling; Space heater for heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-607/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.1% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#452 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksonville ISD (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #534 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Side El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 404 students, 96% FRL); Jacksonville Middle (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 711 students, 79% FRL); Jacksonville H S (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,331 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 286 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,444 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-29,188
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-29,789
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75766

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $150,963

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-5	+0% $-51	+5% $-96	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-97	+0% $-51	+5% $-4	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-10	base $-51	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,953/yr (+$163/mo · 200.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$826
• After-tax cash flow: $219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,097
• Composite: 29.09/100
• National rank: #6598
• State rank: #534 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #452
• US rank: #9160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,988
• Population (ZIP): 25,988

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.95%
• Current HPI: 197.5972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-03-06 Listed $159,900 GTAR

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $974 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.