9505 W Milligan Rd · Arizona City, AZ 85193

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 303 Days on market

Built 1989 1.03 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

What a rare find! This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has a spacious kitchen with knotty wood cabinetry, a custom fireplace, vaulted ceilings, nice floorplan and is in need of a little TLC. Sitting on just over one acre of property, it does provide the opportunity for so much. Easy access to the I-10 freeway heading to Phoenix or Tucson.

Key facts

• Custom fireplace
• Spacious kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CUSTOM FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• ONE ACRE OF PROPERTY
• EASY ACCESS TO I-10

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Non-assumable financing
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water company; Septic (on site and connected); Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fixer condition; Fee simple ownership; Mountain view
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Chain link and partial fencing; Horses allowed; Dirt front and dirt back yard; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range/oven; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-584/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arizona City Elementary School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 744 students, 87% FRL); Vista Grande High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #279 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 1,790 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,053 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $13,005
• Equity at exit: $78,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $59,413
• Equity at exit: $115,139

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85193

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $182,963

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $17	+0% $-49	+5% $-114	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-112	+0% $-49	+5% $15	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $0	base $-49	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15610 S Moon Valley Rd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,600	$0.97	0d	1	0.36mi
9088 W Rafael Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,550	$1.16	0d	1	0.39mi
15310 S Kline Pl Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,150	$1.18	0d	1	0.55mi
15147 S Yava Rd Unit A Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,450	$1.02	22d	1	0.67mi
8550 W Monaco Blvd Unit A (556) Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,350	$1.19	22d	1	0.74mi
15280 S Amado Blvd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,599	$1.08	0d	1	1.04mi
14735 S Amado Blvd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	1.5	1155	$1,650	$1.43	0d	1	1.14mi
14282 S Vera Cruz Rd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,500	$1.25	19d	1	1.32mi
11188 W Ventana Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,675	$1.30	0d	1	1.36mi
10153 W Wenden Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	2069	$1,675	$0.81	1d	1	1.37mi
13971 S Rosemont Rd Unit 2 (479) Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,350	$1.07	7d	1	1.41mi
9301 W Century Dr Unit A (273) Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	7d	1	1.41mi
10307 W Midnight Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,550	$1.02	5d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 282 DOM
16. 2025-10-24
    price $190,000
17. 2025-09-15
    price $200,000
18. 2025-08-22
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$921
• After-tax cash flow: $337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,003
• Population (ZIP): 4,900

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 35% Two or more races 13% Native American 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Current HPI: 251.7085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $215,000 ARMLS