2819 W Birchdale Dr · Missouri City, TX 77489

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1974 10,297 sqft lot $136/sqft · 9% below area Est $247k · 9% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

House has recent updates.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Randall Management; Annual association fee of $175; Community clubhouse and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms on first level); Entry level: First; Facing direction: Not specified
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1974; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Concrete road frontage; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first level (17 x 13); Two additional bedrooms on first level (13 x 10 each); Additional bedroom on first level (13 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($9/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $316 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,655 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,169
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -8.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2307 Clearbrook Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-11%)	0mo	$247,990	$168	80
2239 Fall Meadow Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-8%)	0mo	$224,900	$147	77
3290 Hunters Glen Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+2%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	76
2254 Stillmeadow Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-8%)	3mo	$265,000	$173	76
2126 Quail Valley East Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-7%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	74
2119 Mustang Springs Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-8%)	4mo	$245,000	$160	73
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+11%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	68
2015 Quail Valley East Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-8%)	4mo	$225,000	$147	66
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+5%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	60
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,740 (+5%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	56
2610 Creekway Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-5%)	4mo	$219,900	$140	56
3019 Quail Valley East Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,868 (+13%)	4mo	$264,900	$142	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,756
• Equity at exit: $59,201

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,446
• Equity at exit: $66,437

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,782/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,136

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	43d	1	0.40mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	43d	1	0.75mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	1.17mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	20d	1	1.17mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	12d	1	1.18mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	12d	1	1.24mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	20d	1	1.30mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	24d	1	1.30mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Pending 18 DOM
3. 2026-05-13
   listed $225,000 Active 25-char remark
4. 2025-03-17
   historical $1,850
5. 2025-03-15
   listed $1,850
6. 2020-06-30
   soldstatus
7. 2013-04-15
   soldstatus
8. 2013-04-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,782 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,782 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,782
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$888
• After-tax cash flow: $897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12062.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-03-15 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2020-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,782 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.