802 S Oak Ave · Aurora, MO 65605

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · Other public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1920 7,841 sqft lot $39/sqft · 46% below area Est $123k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity! This property offers over 2,100 square feet of versatile space. It is currently used as a church with an apartment, but could be transformed into a single-family home featuring an expansive living and dining area or additional bedrooms. Great location on a corner lot near shopping. It is zoned R-2 and has the possibility of being converted into a duplex. This property has endless possibilities and is ready for you to come and make it your own! Sold in as is condition.

Key facts

• Versatile space
• Great location
• Zoned r-2

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• VERSATILE SPACE
• GREAT LOCATION
• CORNER LOT
• ZONED R-2
• POSSIBILITY OF DUPLEX

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.9% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#710 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Aurora R-VIII (town): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #244 of 324 in MO (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.41%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,737
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -30.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $10,707
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $40,756
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65605

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $642

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Investment Opportunity! This property offers over 2,100 square feet of versatile space. It is currently used as a church with an apartment, but could be transformed into a single-family home featuring an expansive living and dining area or additional bedrooms. Great location on a corner lot near shopping. It is zoned R-2 and has the possibility of being converted into a duplex. This property has endless possibilities and is ready for you to come and make it your own! Sold in as is condition.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $85,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Investment Opportunity! This property offers over 2,100 square feet of versatile space. It is currently used as a church with an apartment, but could be transformed into a single-family home featuring an expansive living and dining area or additional bedrooms. Great location on a corner lot near shopping. It is zoned R-2 and has the possibility of being converted into a duplex. This property has endless possibilities and is ready for you to come and make it your own! Sold in as is condition.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $87,500 Active 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Investment Opportunity! This property offers over 2,100 square feet of versatile space. It is currently used as a church with an apartment, but could be transformed into a single-family home featuring an expansive living and dining area or additional bedrooms. Great location on a corner lot near shopping. It is zoned R-2 and has the possibility of being converted into a duplex. This property has endless possibilities and is ready for you to come and make it your own! Sold in as is condition.

4. 2019-11-14
   soldstatus 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Huge 2 BD, 1 BA, 2,180 sq. ft. apartment with storage area that could be turned into second apartment for a rental income. Sits in a quiet location close to shopping. Would make a great investment opportunity! Call today to see it!

5. 2019-07-18
   listed $33,000 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Huge 2 BD, 1 BA, 2,180 sq. ft. apartment with storage area that could be turned into second apartment for a rental income. Sits in a quiet location close to shopping. Would make a great investment opportunity! Call today to see it!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$516/yr (+$43/mo · 167.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,084
• − Management: −$1,084
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,411
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$819
• After-tax cash flow: $3,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aurora R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2904020
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,036
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6883
• State rank: #244 of 324 in MO

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #22927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, MO
• Population (ZIP): 11,611

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,142 people
• By 2030: 36,212 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 34,080 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 31,621 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,987 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 20,151 · -45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+61.1 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+157.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $85,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-16 Listed $87,500 SOMO
• 2019-11-14 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2019-07-18 Listed $33,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $308 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.