530 Cimarron · Lake Elmo, MN 55042

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COMING SOON! Currently under construction. Welcome to Cimarron Park, a all age active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning, brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1216 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Lake Elmo, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience hardwood floors, an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light, etc. The stunning kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with features like dual vanities, walk in shower, closet, etc. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a private backyard oasis, low-maintenance landscaping, etc, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Community pool
• Playgrounds

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY ROOM
• WALKING TRAILS
• DOG PARK
• PLAYGROUNDS
• GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $907 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 2.7% in Lake Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.91%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $36,730
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $106,480
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55042

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 Karen Dr Woodbury, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$2,284	$2.27	1d	42	1.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-03-05
    status Active 1140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1140 chars)

    COMING SOON! Currently under construction. Welcome to Cimarron Park, a all age active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning, brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1216 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Lake Elmo, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience hardwood floors, an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light, etc. The stunning kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with features like dual vanities, walk in shower, closet, etc. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a private backyard oasis, low-maintenance landscaping, etc, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete.

15. 2026-03-04
    historical 1140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1140 chars)

    COMING SOON! Currently under construction. Welcome to Cimarron Park, a all age active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning, brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1216 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Lake Elmo, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience hardwood floors, an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light, etc. The stunning kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with features like dual vanities, walk in shower, closet, etc. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a private backyard oasis, low-maintenance landscaping, etc, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete.

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $129,900 Active 1140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1140 chars)

    COMING SOON! Currently under construction. Welcome to Cimarron Park, a all age active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning, brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1216 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Lake Elmo, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience hardwood floors, an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light, etc. The stunning kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with features like dual vanities, walk in shower, closet, etc. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a private backyard oasis, low-maintenance landscaping, etc, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $9,369
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,249
• After-tax cash flow: $8,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lake Elmo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #5860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elmo, MN
• City population: 13,156
• Population (ZIP): 13,156

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.91%
• Current HPI: 224.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Listed $129,900 Zillow