651 Country Club Rd · Red Lion, PA 17356

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,045 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1807 0.26 ac lot $110/sqft · 54% below area Est $209k · 45% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in Red Lion offering a great opportunity for buyers or investors. Outside, you will find a detached pole barn/garage along with an additional detached garage, providing plenty of space for storage, equipment, vehicles, or a workshop. The property features a functional layout and sits in a convenient location close to local amenities, shopping, restaurants, and major routes. With updates and improvements, this property offers strong potential to make it your own or add to an investment portfolio.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Local amenities
• Detached pole barn

Tags

• DETACHED POLE BARN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.5% in Red Lion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#349 in PA, #3,056 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Red Lion Area SD (suburban): math 36% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #282 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mazie Gable El Sch (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,116 of 1,518 statewide, top 74%, 523 students, 73% FRL); Red Lion Area Jhs (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #313 of 512 statewide, top 62%, 813 students, 50% FRL); Red Lion Area Shs (math 63% / reading 24%, grade F, #211 of 437 statewide, top 48%, 1,432 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 28% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1807 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1807 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.12%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,199
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -45.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620 Boundary Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,001 (-4%)	6mo	$200,000	$200	79
807 W Broadway	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,167 (+12%)	16mo	$241,000	$207	59
99 S Pine St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,022 (-2%)	10mo	$185,000	$181	58
223 W Howard St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,023 (-2%)	11mo	$230,000	$225	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,834
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $32,404
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17356

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,217/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $385	+0% $352	+5% $319	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $293	+0% $352	+5% $411	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $381	base $352	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 W Broadway Red Lion, PA	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	46d	1	0.40mi
201 Burrows Rd Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,924	$1.30	16d	1	0.47mi
16 W High St Red Lion, PA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,075	$1.00	23d	1	0.61mi
21 E Lancaster St Red Lion, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	46d	1	0.80mi
361 E Maple St Dallastown, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,005	$1.34	23d	1	1.18mi
100 E Broad St Dallastown, PA	2.0	1.0	920	$950	$1.03	16d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in Red Lion offering a great opportunity for buyers or investors. Outside, you will find a detached pole barn/garage along with an additional detached garage, providing plenty of space for storage, equipment, vehicles, or a workshop. The property features a functional layout and sits in a convenient location close to local amenities, shopping, restaurants, and major routes. With updates and improvements, this property offers strong potential to make it your own or add to an investment portfolio.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $115,000 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in Red Lion offering a great opportunity for buyers or investors. Outside, you will find a detached pole barn/garage along with an additional detached garage, providing plenty of space for storage, equipment, vehicles, or a workshop. The property features a functional layout and sits in a convenient location close to local amenities, shopping, restaurants, and major routes. With updates and improvements, this property offers strong potential to make it your own or add to an investment portfolio.

3. 2026-04-21
   status Active 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in Red Lion offering a great opportunity for buyers or investors. Outside, you will find a detached pole barn/garage along with an additional detached garage, providing plenty of space for storage, equipment, vehicles, or a workshop. The property features a functional layout and sits in a convenient location close to local amenities, shopping, restaurants, and major routes. With updates and improvements, this property offers strong potential to make it your own or add to an investment portfolio.

4. 2026-03-11
   status Pending 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in Red Lion offering a great opportunity for buyers or investors. Outside, you will find a detached pole barn/garage along with an additional detached garage, providing plenty of space for storage, equipment, vehicles, or a workshop. The property features a functional layout and sits in a convenient location close to local amenities, shopping, restaurants, and major routes. With updates and improvements, this property offers strong potential to make it your own or add to an investment portfolio.

5. 2026-03-05
   listed $129,900 Active 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in Red Lion offering a great opportunity for buyers or investors. Outside, you will find a detached pole barn/garage along with an additional detached garage, providing plenty of space for storage, equipment, vehicles, or a workshop. The property features a functional layout and sits in a convenient location close to local amenities, shopping, restaurants, and major routes. With updates and improvements, this property offers strong potential to make it your own or add to an investment portfolio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,217 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,217 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,217
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$618
• After-tax cash flow: $3,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Lion Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4220100
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,225
• Composite: 37.91/100
• National rank: #4313
• State rank: #282 of 539 in PA

Livability — Red Lion

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #3056

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Lion, PA
• County: York County · 278,806 people
• City population: 22,869
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,869
• Household income: $86,561
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.16%
• Current HPI: 259.7294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,217 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.