199 Robin Cir · Robertsdale, AL 36567

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1994 7,797 sqft lot $128/sqft · 17% below area Est $151k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Robertsdale, this 3 bedroom 2 bath home has had recent updates including the HVAC which was replaced last year. The home has updated flooring as well. This would make a great home or possible rental. The home currently has a tenant but will be vacating soon. Put this one on your list to see! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Hvac replaced
• Updated flooring
• 7,797 sq ft lot

Tags

• HVAC REPLACED
• UPDATED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.4% in Robertsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#371 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 10317% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $125k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.92%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,600
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -17.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
195 Robin Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+14%)	17mo	$140,000	$125	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,983
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $53,949
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36567

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $929

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22625 Mattingly St Robertsdale, AL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1033	$1,625	$1.57	13d	4	1.29mi
22615 Mattingly St Robertsdale, AL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,625	$1.55	44d	1	1.29mi
22613 Mattingly St Robertsdale, AL	2.0	1.5	1017	$1,409	$1.39	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $1,200
19. 2026-03-09
    price $135,000 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Located in Robertsdale, this 3 bedroom 2 bath home has had recent updates including the HVAC which was replaced last year. The home has updated flooring as well. This would make a great home or possible rental. The home currently has a tenant but will be vacating soon. Put this one on your list to see! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-02-10
    listed $145,000 Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Located in Robertsdale, this 3 bedroom 2 bath home has had recent updates including the HVAC which was replaced last year. The home has updated flooring as well. This would make a great home or possible rental. The home currently has a tenant but will be vacating soon. Put this one on your list to see! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2025-01-15
    historical $1,000
22. 2024-12-13
    listed $1,000
23. 2020-03-20
    soldstatus $29,000 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    Single wide mobile home located in Cardinal Hills, convenient to Highway 90. Home is sold 'as is' and needs some TLC!

24. 2020-03-05
    listed $29,000 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    Single wide mobile home located in Cardinal Hills, convenient to Highway 90. Home is sold 'as is' and needs some TLC!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 64.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $5,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Robertsdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #21424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Robertsdale, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 16,095
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 16,095
• Household income: $66,432
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 274.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 11% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.36%
• Current HPI: 323.3496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-95.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $1,200 BCAR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $135,000 BCAR
• 2026-02-10 Listed $145,000 BCAR
• 2025-01-15 Rental Removed $1,000 BCAR
• 2024-12-13 Listed for Rent $1,000 BCAR
• 2020-03-20 Sold (MLS) $29,000 BCAR
• 2020-03-05 Listed $29,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.