8831 State Highway 70 #21 · Yuba City, CA 95901

$63,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 997 sqft · Land · 79 Days on market

Built 1978 6,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lot rent is $645/mo. , which includes water/sewer/garbage. Charming and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-full baths, single & 3/4-wide (996.5 sq. feet) mobile home is located in a quiet location within a welcoming 55+ community. The 6,000 sq. ft. lot has three mature fruit trees providing shade, and grape vines. There is a covered carport (for two vehicles), on-street parking and a storage shed. It has a brand-new A/C ( & central heating), brand-new dishwasher, brand-new refrigerator (all in 2025) and a free-standing gas range in an open kitchen with lots of storage space. There is new flooring in the kitchen/office space/hallway and secondary bathroom. Electrical and bathroom su

Key facts

• Grape vines
• Mature fruit trees
• Brand-new a/c

Tags

• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• GRAPE VINES
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• BRAND-NEW A/C
• BRAND-NEW DISHWASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $63k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $805 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 3.6% in Yuba City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#111 in CA, #3,863 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, cost of living F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $59,220 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.79%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $39,342
• Equity at exit: $9,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $93,320
• Equity at exit: $5,447

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95901

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$79 /mo · $945/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $805

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$945
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $9,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,210
• After-tax cash flow: $7,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624090
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,598
• Composite: 18.18/100
• National rank: #8961
• State rank: #455 of 517 in CA

Livability — Yuba City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3863

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Yuba County · 71,731 people
• City population: 81,625
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,732
• Household income: $69,776
• Rent vs Own: 46.0% rent · 54.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Yuba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,432 people
• By 2030: 75,358 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 74,643 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 72,937 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 66,368 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 54,524 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 9% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuba

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 35.7% · R 61.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.01%
• Current HPI: 203.7684
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+24.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $44 · +59.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.