100 Hillside Dr Unit B10 · Scotchtown, NY 10941

$175,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 917 sqft · Condo public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1987 $242/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity to own in the Hillside Village community! This unit offers great potential for buyers looking to add their own updates and personal touches. The home is being sold as-is and does require interior updates. Major improvements have already been completed, including a newer roof, newer siding, providing a solid starting point for renovation. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, schools, and major commuter routes. Ideal for buyers, investors, or anyone looking for value and the opportunity to customize a home in a desirable Middletown location.

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Newer roof
• Newer siding

Tags

• HILLSIDE VILLAGE COMMUNITY
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER SIDING
• NEWER HEATING SYSTEM
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-43/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (0.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Scotchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Goshen Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #438 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Goshen Intermediate School (math 23% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 597 students, 28% FRL); C J Hooker Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 660 students, 29% FRL); Goshen Central High School (math 94% / reading 74%, grade A, #403 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 1,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $175k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,363 (0.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,130
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-22,919
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10941

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,681/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,843

Max offer price $174,363

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $46	+0% $-4	+5% $-53	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-76	+0% $-4	+5% $69	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $41	base $-4	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Poplar Ln Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	44d	1	0.06mi
78 Inwood Rd Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,800	$2.40	44d	1	0.06mi
225 Berkman Dr Middletown, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	881	$1,880	$2.13	14d	45	0.61mi
84 Foster Rd Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	14d	1	1.16mi
4 Fortune Rd W Unit 4G Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	775	$2,000	$2.58	14d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $242 · $2,904/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 1987-03-19
   soldstatus $90,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,819 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$12/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,681
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − HOA: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$677
• After-tax cash flow: $634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goshen Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612330
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,528
• Composite: 39.93/100
• National rank: #3848
• State rank: #438 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scotchtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #9142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scotchtown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,422
• Household income: $99,238
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 525.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.38%
• Current HPI: 326.3597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Listed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $90,400 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,681 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.