7643 Jonathon Ct · Houston, TX 77489

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2000 4,098 sqft lot $174/sqft · 22% above area Est $192k · 22% over ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in a convenient Missouri City location with easy highway access. Recently upgraded with a new roof, stainless steel appliances, washer and dryer, durable LVP flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and modern black fixtures throughout. A functional layout paired with clean, modern updates makes this home an excellent value—don’t miss out!

Key facts

• 4,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owner is listing agent

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2000; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 4,101 square feet; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Three secondary bedrooms on the second floor; Primary bedroom on the second floor (approx. 12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E A Jones El (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 479 students, 86% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $330 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,074 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,044
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 22.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7458 Bahia Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,341 (-1%)	1mo	$228,000	$170	79
7610 Goudin Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,303 (-4%)	6mo	$220,000	$169	74
6913 Chasewood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (-3%)	4mo	$99,000	$75	61
15938 Rosebriar Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,288 (-5%)	9mo	$168,000	$130	59
7502 Dawnbriar Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (-3%)	11mo	$240,000	$183	56
15906 Willbriar Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	1mo	$182,500	$138	55
2435 Buttonhill Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+5%)	3mo	$195,000	$137	53
610 Reedwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+5%)	8mo	$225,000	$158	50
1719 Millbury Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,457 (+8%)	22mo	$249,786	$171	47
15906 Ruppstock Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+3%)	18mo	$217,000	$156	44
15902 Pryor Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+10%)	10mo	$229,000	$154	42
7423 Maczali Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+9%)	4mo	$239,999	$163	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-34,306
• Equity at exit: $61,832

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-44,688
• Equity at exit: $69,389

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,271/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,029

Max offer price $187,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-134	-5% $-201	+0% $-267	+5% $-334	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-334	+0% $-267	+5% $-200	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-207	base $-267	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	21d	1	0.34mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	7d	1	0.47mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	0.99mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	14d	1	1.04mi
6610 Rowell Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,996	$1.14	1d	1	1.11mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 13981 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1017	$1,340	$1.32	45d	1	1.29mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 1174 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1017	$1,350	$1.33	13d	1	1.29mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,575	$1.18	0d	1	1.29mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 14017 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,540	$1.16	18d	1	1.29mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 13975 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1017	$1,345	$1.32	16d	1	1.29mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,540	$1.16	9d	1	1.29mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 13975 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1017	$1,350	$1.33	0d	1	1.29mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1017	$1,310	$1.29	9d	1	1.29mi
6406 Summer Ridge Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,958	$1.21	4d	1	1.36mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Unit 13972 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,164	$1.54	22d	1	1.47mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Unit 13976 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,703	$1.56	22d	1	1.47mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,778	$1.80	5d	22	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 396-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $235,000 Active 396-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   historical $235,000 396-char remark
4. 2026-03-25
   soldstatus
5. 2026-03-25
   soldstatus
6. 1999-08-05
   soldstatus $435,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,271 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,030/yr (+$86/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,271
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$7,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-46.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $435,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,271 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.