1288 Sexton Rd · Paxton, FL 32433

$180,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2025 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

$5,000 closing costs with accepted contract! Brand new 4 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on 1.25 acres. This lot is located in an X flood zone and there is no HOA. Quiet area with a huge lot. Plenty of room for a garden, outbuildings and 4 wheelers. Spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms and bonus room that can be used for an office or another bedroom as needed. Enjoy an affordable homeownership opportunity! This property may qualify for USDA 100% financing for eligible buyers, with additional low-down payment and closing cost assistance programs potentially available also. Contact selling agent for lending options!

Key facts

• Garden
• Outbuildings
• Huge lot

Tags

• 1.25 ACRES
• NO HOA
• QUIET AREA
• HUGE LOT
• GARDEN
• OUTBUILDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total building area source: building plan
• HOA & community: Subdivision: METES & BOUNDS

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric service; Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Mobile home style; Single-story (1 story); Entry and main living areas on the first floor; Zoned for agriculture, horses allowed, mobile home, single-family residential; Lot dimensions about 304 x 137
• Construction: Built in 2025; Foundation on piling
• Exterior features: Level, wooded lot; Easements present; Survey available; Dirt/clay road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (master suite on the first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric heat control); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Washer/dryer hookup; Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#861 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mossy Head School (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 439 students, 86% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $180k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $113,835
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.41×
• Total profit: $322,878
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32433

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $310	+0% $248	+5% $185	+10% $123
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $173	+0% $248	+5% $322	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $293	base $248	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 615-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-05-10
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2024-07-12
    status Active
20. 2024-01-04
    listed $33,500 Active
21. 2006-11-09
    soldstatus $47,000
22. 1994-05-27
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $113
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Paxton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #22199

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,746
• Household income: $52,199
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.77%
• Current HPI: 367.046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+620.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed $180,000 ECAR
• 2024-07-12 Relisted — ECAR
• 2024-01-04 Listed $33,500 ECAR
• 2006-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $123 · +49.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.