18374 Outlook Dr · Loxley, AL 36551

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2007 0.29 ac lot $144/sqft · 7% below area Est $268k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the Blackwater Lakes community! Offering approximately 1,725 square feet, this home features a functional layout with plenty of room to spread out. The split floor plan provides added privacy, while the open living area is perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The home could use some cosmetic updates, making it a great opportunity for buyers to add their own personal touch and build instant equity. With a little TLC, this property has the potential to truly shine. Situated on a nice lot in a convenient location, you’ll enjoy easy access to local schools, shopping, and dining. Priced at $255,000, this home is a fantastic value in today’s market—don’t miss your chance to make it your own! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-164/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 49%, grade F, #288 of 627 statewide, top 46%, 482 students, 65% FRL); Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Robertsdale High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #53 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,450 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $211k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,116 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,561
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -4.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18763 Canvasback Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,740 (-2%)	10mo	$289,900	$167	84
18240 Outlook Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,740 (-2%)	14mo	$280,000	$161	78
18793 Outlook Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-4%)	4mo	$279,900	$165	77
18738 Explorer Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,728 (-2%)	19mo	$277,000	$160	72
28376 Mallard Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,645 (-7%)	11mo	$289,900	$176	67
28318 Mallard Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (+7%)	10mo	$295,000	$157	65
28424 Publisher Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-9%)	11mo	$265,000	$165	64
28268 Mallard Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,578 (-11%)	2mo	$300,000	$190	62
28458 Mallard Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (-14%)	3mo	$302,000	$199	57
18750 Explorer Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-13%)	11mo	$200,000	$130	56
18318 Outlook Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-14%)	24mo	$262,000	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,282
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,314
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,433/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $252,591

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $59	+0% $-14	+5% $-86	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-91	+0% $-14	+5% $64	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $51	base $-14	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 840-char remark

   Show marketing remark (840 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the Blackwater Lakes community! Offering approximately 1,725 square feet, this home features a functional layout with plenty of room to spread out. The split floor plan provides added privacy, while the open living area is perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The home could use some cosmetic updates, making it a great opportunity for buyers to add their own personal touch and build instant equity. With a little TLC, this property has the potential to truly shine. Situated on a nice lot in a convenient location, you’ll enjoy easy access to local schools, shopping, and dining. Priced at $255,000, this home is a fantastic value in today’s market—don’t miss your chance to make it your own! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $255,000 Active 840-char remark

   Show marketing remark (840 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the Blackwater Lakes community! Offering approximately 1,725 square feet, this home features a functional layout with plenty of room to spread out. The split floor plan provides added privacy, while the open living area is perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The home could use some cosmetic updates, making it a great opportunity for buyers to add their own personal touch and build instant equity. With a little TLC, this property has the potential to truly shine. Situated on a nice lot in a convenient location, you’ll enjoy easy access to local schools, shopping, and dining. Priced at $255,000, this home is a fantastic value in today’s market—don’t miss your chance to make it your own! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

3. 2026-03-24
   soldstatus $210,600
4. 2024-02-29
   soldstatus $280,000
5. 2024-02-28
   soldstatus $280,000 Closed 769-char remark

   Show marketing remark (769 chars)

   MUST SEE!!! MOVE IN READY! Welcome home to this updated charming 4 bed 2 bath split plan gem! This Fully brick home boasts one of the largest lots in the subdivision w/ fenced in back yard, ideal space to enjoy the beautiful sunshine! Added benefit is side gate for parking boat or RV. This property has a 10x20 lofted barn w/ full electricity for shop working, man cave, she shed, or playhouse! Excellent location and its just up the street from Blackwater River. Enjoy open living space and vaulted ceilings! This home has too many updates to list them all, but here's a sneak peek. .. new light fixtures throughout, crown molding, appliances, kitchen flooring, farmhouse sink, accent wall, fresh shutters to name a few! Run don't walk to schedule your showing today!

6. 2024-01-27
   status Pending 769-char remark

   Show marketing remark (769 chars)

   MUST SEE!!! MOVE IN READY! Welcome home to this updated charming 4 bed 2 bath split plan gem! This Fully brick home boasts one of the largest lots in the subdivision w/ fenced in back yard, ideal space to enjoy the beautiful sunshine! Added benefit is side gate for parking boat or RV. This property has a 10x20 lofted barn w/ full electricity for shop working, man cave, she shed, or playhouse! Excellent location and its just up the street from Blackwater River. Enjoy open living space and vaulted ceilings! This home has too many updates to list them all, but here's a sneak peek. .. new light fixtures throughout, crown molding, appliances, kitchen flooring, farmhouse sink, accent wall, fresh shutters to name a few! Run don't walk to schedule your showing today!

7. 2024-01-19
   listed $274,900 Active 769-char remark

   Show marketing remark (769 chars)

   MUST SEE!!! MOVE IN READY! Welcome home to this updated charming 4 bed 2 bath split plan gem! This Fully brick home boasts one of the largest lots in the subdivision w/ fenced in back yard, ideal space to enjoy the beautiful sunshine! Added benefit is side gate for parking boat or RV. This property has a 10x20 lofted barn w/ full electricity for shop working, man cave, she shed, or playhouse! Excellent location and its just up the street from Blackwater River. Enjoy open living space and vaulted ceilings! This home has too many updates to list them all, but here's a sneak peek. .. new light fixtures throughout, crown molding, appliances, kitchen flooring, farmhouse sink, accent wall, fresh shutters to name a few! Run don't walk to schedule your showing today!

8. 2024-01-18
   historical $274,900 769-char remark

   Show marketing remark (769 chars)

   MUST SEE!!! MOVE IN READY! Welcome home to this updated charming 4 bed 2 bath split plan gem! This Fully brick home boasts one of the largest lots in the subdivision w/ fenced in back yard, ideal space to enjoy the beautiful sunshine! Added benefit is side gate for parking boat or RV. This property has a 10x20 lofted barn w/ full electricity for shop working, man cave, she shed, or playhouse! Excellent location and its just up the street from Blackwater River. Enjoy open living space and vaulted ceilings! This home has too many updates to list them all, but here's a sneak peek. .. new light fixtures throughout, crown molding, appliances, kitchen flooring, farmhouse sink, accent wall, fresh shutters to name a few! Run don't walk to schedule your showing today!

9. 2019-05-02
   soldstatus $160,003
10. 2019-04-30
    soldstatus $159,900
11. 2018-08-12
    listed $159,900
12. 2018-03-02
    listed $164,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,433 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,433 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,433
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,114
• After-tax cash flow: $950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,915

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.18%
• Current HPI: 291.8584
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+54.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $255,000 BCAR
• 2026-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $210,600 Public Records
• 2024-02-29 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-28 Sold (MLS) $280,000 BCAR
• 2024-01-27 Pending — BCAR
• 2024-01-19 Listed $274,900 BCAR
• 2024-01-18 Coming Soon $274,900 BCAR
• 2019-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $160,003 Public Records
• 2019-04-30 Sold (MLS) $159,900 BCAR
• 2018-08-12 Listed $159,900 BCAR
• 2018-03-02 Listed $164,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,433 · +137.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.