10401 N Cave Creek Rd #284 · Phoenix, AZ 85020

$14,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 1972 ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

On Leased Land & 55 Plus Community: Charming 2-bedroom mobile home is now on the market! Inside, you'll find inviting living areas with wood-look flooring, plenty of natural light, and neutral colors, making every space perfect for entertaining and relaxation. The kitchen comes equipped with plentiful storage cabinetry, ample counter space, and built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. Two bedrooms promise a good night's sleep, both featuring a nice closet space and ceiling fans. Sip your morning coffee under the covered patio and enjoy the beautiful mountain views! Don't forget to visit the community's pool for a refreshing time! Welcome home!

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $820 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 1 open parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer; City water and private water company available
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile housing; Leasehold ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Wood frame construction, painted exterior; Metal roof; Building area as reported by owner
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Desert front and desert back lot characteristics; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (total)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; No interior steps; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Bath lever faucets and grab bars (accessibility)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $893 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 77.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $103 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,099 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 77.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 255.10%
• DSCR: 12.35
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $34,400
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #275	0.16mi	2/1.0	792 (-1%)	8mo	$45,000	$57	84
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #301	0.09mi	2/1.0	850 (+6%)	9mo	$24,000	$28	78
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #274	0.00mi	2/1.5	720 (-10%)	7mo	$34,000	$47	76
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #305	0.09mi	2/2.0	728 (-9%)	8mo	$33,333	$46	70
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #263	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	784 (-2%)	18mo	$22,000	$28	69
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #315	0.09mi	2/1.0	860 (+8%)	19mo	$27,500	$32	68
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #115	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	704 (-12%)	8mo	$30,000	$43	65
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #252	0.16mi	2/1.5	912 (+14%)	9mo	$29,000	$32	60
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #331	0.09mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	20mo	$15,000	$21	58
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #242	0.09mi	2/1.5	896 (+12%)	23mo	$42,500	$47	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.09×
• Total profit: $50,755
• Equity at exit: $2,236

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.58×
• Total profit: $103,209
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85020

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $893

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $14,999

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1525 E Cheryl Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,157	$1.37	1d	6	0.14mi
1420 E Brown St Unit C Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	1d	1	0.16mi
10410 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1227	$1,400	$1.14	1d	4	0.19mi
1551 E Christy Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	702	$950	$1.35	24d	1	0.21mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	7d	1	0.28mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	24d	1	0.28mi
10644 N 15th Way Unit 08 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$925	$1.68	7d	1	0.28mi
9838 N 14th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$1,150	$2.09	1d	1	0.30mi
9816 N 15th St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	1d	1	0.32mi
1346 E Mountain View Rd Unit 208 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	1d	1	0.35mi
1336 E Mountain View Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	885	$1,150	$1.30	1d	2	0.36mi
1336 E Mountain View Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	885	$1,250	$1.41	23d	2	0.36mi
1336 E Mountain View Rd Unit 105 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	885	$1,350	$1.53	17d	1	0.36mi
1247 E Cinnabar Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	1d	5	0.38mi
1241 E Cinnabar Ave Unit 104A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	848	$999	$1.18	23d	1	0.38mi
1241 E Cinnabar Ave Unit 102A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	848	$999	$1.18	1d	1	0.38mi
1168 E Cochise Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1038	$1,795	$1.73	1d	1	0.40mi
1222 E Mountain View Rd #114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	783	$1,099	$1.40	16d	1	0.46mi
1222 E Mountain View Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	783	$1,024	$1.31	1d	3	0.47mi
1230 E Purdue Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	1d	1	0.49mi
1306 E Purdue Ave Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	930	$1,545	$1.66	1d	1	0.49mi
10420 N 11th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1060	$1,750	$1.65	12d	1	0.50mi
1321 E Carol Ave Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	1d	1	0.57mi
10420 N 10th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,625	$1.53	1d	1	0.58mi
10215 N 8th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	882	$1,349	$1.53	1d	1	0.66mi
9215 N 13th Pl Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	670	$1,200	$1.79	1d	1	0.71mi
731 E North Ln #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	1d	1	0.79mi
10001 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	604	$1,229	$2.03	1d	11	0.86mi
1401 E Dunlap Ave Unit 1413-04 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	990	$1,325	$1.34	1d	1	0.88mi
823 E Carol Ave Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	532	$1,200	$2.26	1d	1	0.89mi
1136 E Eva St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	736	$1,600	$2.17	1d	1	0.90mi
9514 N 8th St Unit 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	724	$1,050	$1.45	1d	1	0.92mi
9028 N 11th St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	1d	1	0.95mi
10002 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,675	$1.53	1d	23	0.96mi
888 E Clinton St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,559	$1.52	1d	30	0.98mi
1027 E Dunlap Ave Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	1d	1	1.02mi
723 E Sunnyslope Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,695	$2.12	2d	1	1.05mi
723 E Sunnyslope Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	794	$1,695	$2.13	1d	1	1.05mi
8916 N 11th St Unit A Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	799	$900	$1.13	2d	1	1.06mi
9603 N 5th St Unit B Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	530	$945	$1.78	10d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,999 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $14,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,775 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,775 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,775 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,775 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,775 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $17,775 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $17,775 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $17,775 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,999 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,999 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,999 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $19,999
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $23,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $11,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,673
• After-tax cash flow: $8,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,916
• Household income: $83,735
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2104.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -484.20%
• Current HPI: 305.8855
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.77%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $19,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $23,500 ARMLS