14974 SW 24th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,865 sqft · Land · 160 Days on market

Built 2025 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. OWN FOR LESS THAN RENT + SELLER INCENTIVES AVAILABLE! This brand-new home stands out from the moment you arrive, featuring a bold modern design and a bright open-concept layout — perfect for first-time buyers ready to stop renting and start owning in Ocala. Inside, natural light fills the living spaces, highlighting sleek finishes and contemporary details throughout. The spacious layout offers 4 bedrooms with comfort and privacy for the whole family, along with generous storage and beautifully designed bathrooms featuring premium fixtures. Enjoy the benefits of new construction with low maintenance and a home designed for both everyday living an

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.24 acres (about 971 m²); Living area 1,865 sq ft (builder provided); total building area 2,392 sq ft; Property type: Residential, zoning R1; Direction faces: Southwest; No CDD; not homestead

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage door opener; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Southwest facing; New construction; Completed condition
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Martins Development LLC (Model 1865H)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floor plan; Solid wood cabinets; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marion Oaks Elementary School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 939 students, 65% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $300k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,183 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-66,485
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-96,607
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $267,127

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-101	+0% $-186	+5% $-270	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-265	+0% $-186	+5% $-106	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-109	base $-186	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	14d	1	0.22mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,699	$1.08	22d	1	0.22mi
2603 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	1.5	1402	$1,550	$1.11	14d	1	0.24mi
15353 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	14d	1	0.27mi
2705 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,745	$1.10	22d	1	0.31mi
2584 SW 154th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,975	$1.58	22d	1	0.39mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	22d	1	0.46mi
2598 SW 147th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	14d	1	0.49mi
14693 SW 21st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,675	$1.20	14d	1	0.52mi
2600 SW 146th Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1896	$2,100	$1.11	14d	1	0.54mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	22d	1	0.56mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	14d	1	0.56mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	22d	1	0.57mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	14d	1	0.57mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	22d	1	0.58mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	14d	1	0.59mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	22d	1	0.62mi
14587 SW 25th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,750	$1.11	22d	1	0.63mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	14d	1	0.65mi
2632 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,675	$1.13	14d	1	0.69mi
2730 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,725	$1.26	22d	1	0.73mi
3011 SW 140th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	22d	1	0.84mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	22d	1	0.85mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	0.90mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	22d	1	0.98mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	22d	1	0.99mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	14d	1	1.02mi
14245 SW 28th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	1.03mi
3500 SW 150th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,750	$0.98	14d	1	1.05mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	22d	1	1.06mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	1.06mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	14d	1	1.07mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	14d	1	1.09mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	1.11mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	14d	1	1.13mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	14d	1	1.14mi
2870 SW 143rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,850	$0.91	22d	1	1.15mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	22d	1	1.19mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	14d	1	1.22mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $299,900
3. 2026-02-06
   status Active
4. 2026-02-06
   price $310,000
5. 2026-01-09
   status Active
6. 2026-01-09
   price $315,000
7. 2025-11-17
   listed $320,000 Active
8. 2012-05-22
   soldstatus $145,000
9. 2006-03-10
   soldstatus $36,500
10. 2006-02-27
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,468/yr (+$122/mo · 143.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,839
• After-tax cash flow: $-387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1899.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records
• 2006-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +176.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.