8410 Castle Garden Rd · Ellenton, FL 34221

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2002 4,792 sqft lot Est $239k · 12% over $181/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Expect to be impressed with this one-of-a-kind 3-bedroom, 2-bath split-bedroom 1760 sq ft home in sought-after Imperial Lakes Estates! This land-owned 55+ community offers resort-style living with two heated pools, a Jacuzzi, pickleball and tennis courts, an active clubhouse, and is beautifully surrounded by a scenic 65-acre lake. A welcoming screened porch greets you upon entry and sets the tone for the inviting interior. Step inside to an open-concept layout featuring a spacious eat-in kitchen and great room. The kitchen boasts a bright breakfast bay, abundant cabinetry, and a raised snack bar with seating for 5–6—perfect for entertaining. The expansive great room and formal d

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Tennis courts
• Split-bedroom home

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM HOME
• LAND-OWNED COMMUNITY
• TWO HEATED POOLS
• JACUZZI
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association approval required for purchase
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Part of Imperial Lakes Estates HOA (buyer approval required); Monthly HOA approximately $181.33 (quarterly fee noted); Quarterly association fee includes pool, internet, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, gated entry, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, sidewalks, street lights, community mailbox, racquetball; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (dogs/cats; max pet weight 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (24 x 22); Garage door opener; Off-street parking
• Security: Gated community (association amenity); Lobby key required (association amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; Residential property; Single level (one story); South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Paved lot; Mature landscaping with trees; Wooded areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air; Attic fan; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Skylights; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $269k implies a 896% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.97%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,360
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8418 Regal Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-4%)	9mo	$285,000	$170	79
8409 Imperial Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-3%)	10mo	$234,000	$138	75
8534 Countess Avenue Cir	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-4%)	4mo	$230,000	$136	64
8521 Countess Avenue Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-9%)	2mo	$235,000	$147	62
8485 Imperial Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-10%)	3mo	$160,000	$101	58
8434 Imperial Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-13%)	7mo	$187,500	$122	57
8466 Imperial Cir	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (-15%)	4mo	$180,000	$120	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-35,375
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-39,916
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,326/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$181
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,296

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $325	+0% $249	+5% $173	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $146	+0% $249	+5% $352	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $317	base $249	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.39mi
8960 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,650	$1.34	24d	1	0.71mi
6930 60th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	2331	$3,800	$1.63	24d	1	0.82mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	24d	1	0.88mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,342	$2.23	24d	99	0.96mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$1,800	$0.85	24d	1	1.04mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	21d	1	1.08mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	21d	1	1.16mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	21d	1	1.19mi
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	24d	1	1.22mi
6211 Kenava Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2518	$2,800	$1.11	24d	1	1.24mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,405	$2.37	3d	50	1.28mi
6109 63rd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,960	$1.51	2d	1	1.30mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	1.31mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	21d	1	1.32mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	24d	1	1.34mi
6117 Tremeza Pl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,321	$1.20	3d	1	1.37mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	15d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $181 · $2,172/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $269,000 Active
16. 2002-05-17
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,326 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 68.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,326
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − HOA: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$1,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$339
• After-tax cash flow: $3,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+896.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,326 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.