607 Saint Johns Ave · Red Lake Falls, MN 56750

$122,400

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1939 8,494 sqft lot $94/sqft · 25% below area Est $164k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This updated home sits on a peaceful city lot with nice green space and single car garage. Perfect for a new place to call home. New paint, flooring, lighting. This home is move in ready and wants a new owner. The LVP flooring makes cleanups a breeze. Large kitchen for cooking those favorite meals. Downstairs there is room for storage or more finishing for equity. Make this one a first stop on your visit today!

Key facts

• Green space
• New lighting
• Single car garage

Tags

• GREEN SPACE
• SINGLE CAR GARAGE
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW LIGHTING
• MOVE IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#142 in MN, #3,078 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Lake Falls Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #156 of 301 in MN (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J.A. Hughes Elementary (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #492 of 857 statewide, top 61%, 222 students, 43% FRL); Lafayette Secondary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #189 of 471 statewide, top 44%, 162 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Red Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $846 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Red Lake County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $122k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,056 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.65%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,098
• List price: $122,400
• Delta: -25.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 3rd St SW	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,390 (+7%)	10mo	$170,000	$122	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-11,359
• Equity at exit: $18,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,066
• Equity at exit: $10,583

Cash invested: $34,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56750

• Home prices YoY: -20.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,784/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,065

Max offer price $122,400

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $167	+0% $133	+5% $98	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $84	+0% $133	+5% $182	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $164	base $133	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,600
• Closing costs: $3,672
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $122,400 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $122,400 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,400 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,400 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,400 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,400 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   price $122,400 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-05-14
    price $139,900 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    This updated home sits on a peaceful city lot with nice green space and single car garage. Perfect for a new place to call home. New paint, flooring, lighting. This home is move in ready and wants a new owner. The LVP flooring makes cleanups a breeze. Large kitchen for cooking those favorite meals. Downstairs there is room for storage or more finishing for equity. Make this one a first stop on your visit today!

20. 2026-04-13
    listed $144,900 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    This updated home sits on a peaceful city lot with nice green space and single car garage. Perfect for a new place to call home. New paint, flooring, lighting. This home is move in ready and wants a new owner. The LVP flooring makes cleanups a breeze. Large kitchen for cooking those favorite meals. Downstairs there is room for storage or more finishing for equity. Make this one a first stop on your visit today!

21. 2026-04-13
    historical

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    This updated home sits on a peaceful city lot with nice green space and single car garage. Perfect for a new place to call home. New paint, flooring, lighting. This home is move in ready and wants a new owner. The LVP flooring makes cleanups a breeze. Large kitchen for cooking those favorite meals. Downstairs there is room for storage or more finishing for equity. Make this one a first stop on your visit today!

22. 2026-04-10
    listed $144,900 Active
23. 2026-03-20
    historical
24. 2026-01-14
    listed $74,900 Active
25. 2026-01-14
    historical
26. 2025-11-18
    price $74,900
27. 2025-10-29
    price $59,900
28. 2025-10-25
    price $52,500
29. 2025-10-08
    price $57,500
30. 2025-10-02
    price $59,900
31. 2025-09-24
    price $62,000
32. 2025-09-17
    price $62,500
33. 2025-09-10
    price $62,900
34. 2025-08-27
    price $67,900
35. 2025-08-13
    price $68,900
36. 2025-08-06
    price $69,900
37. 2025-07-31
    price $74,900
38. 2025-07-16
    listed $79,900 Active
39. 2025-07-16
    historical
40. 2025-07-02
    price $84,900
41. 2025-06-25
    price $94,900
42. 2025-06-19
    price $99,900
43. 2025-06-11
    price $109,900
44. 2025-06-04
    price $119,900
45. 2025-05-28
    listed $129,900 Active
46. 2025-05-15
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,856
• − Property taxes: −$1,784
• − Insurance: −$612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$3,561
• Taxable loss: −$381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$91
• After-tax cash flow: $1,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Lake Falls Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2730450
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,088
• Composite: 40.3/100
• National rank: #3756
• State rank: #156 of 301 in MN

Livability — Red Lake Falls

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #3078

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Lake Falls, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,280

Population outlook (Red Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,902 people
• By 2030: 3,807 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 3,587 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 3,382 · -13.3%
• By 2075: 3,091 · -20.8%
• By 2100: 2,881 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 20% Lithuanian 18% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Red Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 30.4% · R 67.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.4pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+34.7 2016: R+32.1 2012: R+2.5 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.35%
• Current HPI: 137.2603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+86.5% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $144,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $144,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $59,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $52,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $57,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $59,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $62,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $62,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $62,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $67,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $68,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $69,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $84,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $94,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $109,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,784 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.