3485 Citrus St · St. James City, FL 33956

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking to live on Pine Island without the high cost of waterfront property? Then look no further! This spotless 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home is awaiting your arrival! There are hurricane shutters all around, with lots of room underneath this elevated home to enclose and turn into a garage, or storage. There is no carpet, and the screened porch on the rear of the home is the width of the home and very private. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Built 2003
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story residential property
• Construction: Located on a 0.31-acre lot
• Exterior features: Zoned RS-1

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Directions available for access: West on Pine Island Rd., South on Stringfellow, Left on Tropical Point Dr., Right on Citrus

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$619,735) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 530.0% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 56.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 530.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 1870.45%
• DSCR: 84.22
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $619,735
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3461 Manatee Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-4%)	3mo	$594,500	$391	70
3471 Papaya St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-9%)	11mo	$75,000	$52	68
3471 Manatee Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-3%)	9mo	$520,000	$339	66
3483 Manatee Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,775 (+12%)	15mo	$780,000	$439	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 80.51×
• Total profit: $111,312
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 173.96×
• Total profit: $242,149
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $1,756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $584

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5946 Stringfellow Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$2,806	$2.25	13d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 316-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$5,144
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,694
• − Management: −$2,694
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $22,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,434
• After-tax cash flow: $15,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-72.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-08-13 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2025-07-17 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $255,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-04 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-02 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $275,000 FORTMLS
• 2020-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-10 Sold (MLS) $240,000 FORTMLS
• 2020-07-14 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2020-06-09 Listed $249,000 FORTMLS
• 2012-03-16 Sold (MLS) $138,000 FORTMLS
• 2012-02-13 Price Changed $144,900 FORTMLS
• 2004-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $227,500 Public Records
• 2004-12-15 Sold (MLS) $227,500 FORTMLS
• 2004-11-01 Price Changed $239,900 FORTMLS
• 2003-03-07 Sold (MLS) $30,000 FORTMLS
• 2003-02-26 Price Changed $35,900 FORTMLS
• 2001-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,813 · +30.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.