209 3rd Ave W · Lemmon, SD 57638

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1917 0.32 ac lot $110/sqft · 50% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Bedroom, 1-Bath Home with Heartfelt Appeal This delightful home offers three comfortable bedrooms and one full bath, perfect for everyday living. The kitchen is truly the heart of the home -- a welcoming space where family and friends can gather, cook, and connect. The living room creating a cozy and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy quiet mornings or relaxing evenings on the covered porch, the perfect spot to unwind and take in the peaceful surroundings. Outside, you'll also find a spacious yard and a detached garage that provides plenty of room for vehicles, tools, or hobbies. With its classic charm, practical features, and warm character, this home is ready to welcome you.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1917

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#8 in SD, #2,009 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Lemmon School District 52-4 (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #60 of 148 in SD (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Perkins County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,130 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.12%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,198
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 66.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 4th Ave W	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-3%)	12mo	$59,900	$56	75
506 1st Ave W	0.26mi	3/1.0	978 (-10%)	5mo	$45,000	$46	66
901 2nd Ave W	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,131 (+4%)	2mo	$128,000	$113	62
108 4th Ave W	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,245 (+14%)	22mo	$81,000	$65	54
501 4th St W	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+14%)	16mo	$139,900	$112	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $14,840
• Equity at exit: $48,509

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $51,563
• Equity at exit: $70,770

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57638

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $388/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $121	+0% $87	+5% $53	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $47	+0% $87	+5% $127	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $118	base $87	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 205 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 204 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 203 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 202 DOM
16. 2025-11-10
    listed $120,000 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom, 1-Bath Home with Heartfelt Appeal This delightful home offers three comfortable bedrooms and one full bath, perfect for everyday living. The kitchen is truly the heart of the home -- a welcoming space where family and friends can gather, cook, and connect. The living room creating a cozy and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy quiet mornings or relaxing evenings on the covered porch, the perfect spot to unwind and take in the peaceful surroundings. Outside, you'll also find a spacious yard and a detached garage that provides plenty of room for vehicles, tools, or hobbies. With its classic charm, practical features, and warm character, this home is ready to welcome you.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,572 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,184/yr (+$99/mo · 305.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$388
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$971
• − Management: −$971
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lemmon School District 52-4
• NCES district ID: 4641520
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,532
• Composite: 45.67/100
• National rank: #5633
• State rank: #60 of 148 in SD

Livability — Lemmon

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2009

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lemmon, SD
• Population (ZIP): 1,963

Population outlook (Perkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,128 people
• By 2030: 3,207 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 3,391 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 3,602 · +15.2%
• By 2075: 4,340 · +38.7%
• By 2100: 4,754 · +52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Native American 4% Two or more races 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 21% Scottish 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Perkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.3% · R 84.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+69.6 2016: R+71.3 2012: R+55.7 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Current HPI: 152.8514
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Listed $120,000 Badlands BOR MLS

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $388 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.