209 Goose Creek Blvd · Bogue, NC 28570

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2008

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXCEPTIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENT 16 WIDE MH WITH MANY EXTRAS INCLUDES SCREEN PORCH & STORAGE BUILDING 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLSLOCATED IN WATERFRONT MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY WITH 2 CONCRETE BOAT RAMPS, 250 FT. DAYDOCK/PIER, LARGE SWIMMING POOL,COVERED PICNIC AREA,LARGE WATERFRONT AREA. Appliances: SURFACE STOVE Construction: 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLS Foundation: TO COUNTY CODE Sewer: SEPTIC TANK Water: WEST CARTERET

Key facts

• Direct icw access
• Community pool
• Waterfront park

Tags

• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• DIRECT ICW ACCESS
• WATERFRONT PARK
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FISH CLEANING STATION
• VINYL SHAKER SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($90k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $412k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#311 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Elementary (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #88 of 1,410 statewide, top 6%, 772 students, 100% FRL); Broad Creek Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #28 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 710 students, 100% FRL); Croatan High (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A, #73 of 535 statewide, top 13%, 974 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Carteret County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,635/mo this rent would consume 216% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $412,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.51%
• DSCR: 4.36
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,048
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Blue Goose Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$226	79
405 Snow Goose Ln	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,189 (-5%)	1mo	$350,000	$294	74
222 Blue Goose Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,423 (+14%)	6mo	$404,000	$284	67
192 Bogue Forest Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+5%)	16mo	$292,500	$224	54
219 Goose Creek Blvd	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (-15%)	20mo	$150,000	$141	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $407,969
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.14×
• Total profit: $969,029
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,052/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,653
• Net cashflow: $7,488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,156

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,729	-5% $7,608	+0% $7,488	+5% $7,368	+10% $7,247
Rent	-10% $6,490	-5% $6,989	+0% $7,488	+5% $7,987	+10% $8,486
Rate	-1.0pp $7,702	-0.5pp $7,596	base $7,488	+0.5pp $7,378	+1.0pp $7,266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $425,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $425,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $425,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $425,000 Active
18. 2023-04-26
    soldstatus $340,000
19. 2012-06-15
    soldstatus $135,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    EXCEPTIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENT 16 WIDE MH WITH MANY EXTRAS INCLUDES SCREEN PORCH & STORAGE BUILDING 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLSLOCATED IN WATERFRONT MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY WITH 2 CONCRETE BOAT RAMPS, 250 FT. DAYDOCK/PIER, LARGE SWIMMING POOL,COVERED PICNIC AREA,LARGE WATERFRONT AREA. Appliances: SURFACE STOVE Construction: 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLS Foundation: TO COUNTY CODE Sewer: SEPTIC TANK Water: WEST CARTERET

20. 2012-06-15
    soldstatus $135,000

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    EXCEPTIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENT 16 WIDE MH WITH MANY EXTRAS INCLUDES SCREEN PORCH & STORAGE BUILDING 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLSLOCATED IN WATERFRONT MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY WITH 2 CONCRETE BOAT RAMPS, 250 FT. DAYDOCK/PIER, LARGE SWIMMING POOL,COVERED PICNIC AREA,LARGE WATERFRONT AREA. Appliances: SURFACE STOVE Construction: 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLS Foundation: TO COUNTY CODE Sewer: SEPTIC TANK Water: WEST CARTERET

21. 2012-06-02
    listed $189,900 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    EXCEPTIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENT 16 WIDE MH WITH MANY EXTRAS INCLUDES SCREEN PORCH & STORAGE BUILDING 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLSLOCATED IN WATERFRONT MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY WITH 2 CONCRETE BOAT RAMPS, 250 FT. DAYDOCK/PIER, LARGE SWIMMING POOL,COVERED PICNIC AREA,LARGE WATERFRONT AREA. Appliances: SURFACE STOVE Construction: 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLS Foundation: TO COUNTY CODE Sewer: SEPTIC TANK Water: WEST CARTERET

22. 2011-12-04
    historical
23. 2011-06-04
    listed $184,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,052 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,485 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,433/yr (+$203/mo · 231.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $151,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$1,052
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,129
• − Management: −$12,129
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable income: $88,013
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21,123
• After-tax cash flow: $68,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bogue

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #13024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+129.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $425,000 FSBO.com
• 2023-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 2012-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2012-06-15 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Hive MLS
• 2012-06-02 Listed $189,900 Hive MLS
• 2011-12-04 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2011-06-04 Listed $184,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+20.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,052 · +528.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.