9484 N Highway 99 #44 · Morada, CA 95212

$174,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · Manufactured · 252 Days on market

Built 1967 Excellent condition $203/sqft · 125% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER IS MOTIVATED!!! UNIT FOR ALL AGES. Welcome to this brand-new, reconstructed mobile home completed with state-issued permits in the desirable Morada Mobile Home Park. This 2-bed, 1-bath home with laundry room has been fully rebuilt to modern standards. The second bedroom is a permitted addition, providing extra comfort and functionality. Inside, you'll find all new appliances, along with brand-new insulation for energy efficiency. Major upgrades include a new HVAC system, water heater, plumbing, and electrical. Everything is new, beautifully finished, and designed for long-lasting comfort. Conveniently located near freeways, shopping, dining, and gas stations, this home offers modern

Key facts

• Laundry room
• State-issued permits
• Brand-new insulation

Tags

• RECONSTRUCTED MOBILE HOME
• STATE-ISSUED PERMITS
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PERMITTED ADDITION
• NEW APPLIANCES
• BRAND-NEW INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $846 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.7% in Morada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#596 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.74%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,792
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: 124.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9454 N Hwy 99 #9	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (-9%)	7mo	$68,000	$87	80
10780 N Highway 99 #59	0.05mi	2/1.0	800 (-7%)	15mo	$115,000	$144	73
10780 N Highway 99 #31	0.07mi	2/1.0	784 (-9%)	18mo	$80,000	$102	67
5100 N Highway 99 #209	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+9%)	20mo	$124,000	$132	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $25,606
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $91,872
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $846

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $967	-5% $907	+0% $846	+5% $786	+10% $726
Rent	-10% $641	-5% $744	+0% $846	+5% $949	+10% $1,052
Rate	-1.0pp $934	-0.5pp $891	base $846	+0.5pp $801	+1.0pp $755

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,314	$2.18	22d	1	1.33mi
4030 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$2,340	$2.88	3d	26	1.38mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 234 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $7,839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $8,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new, fully reconstructed mobile home is move-in ready with modern upgrades and permits, ideal for all ages and investors seeking a turnkey property.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Morada

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #19273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morada, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B