1011 W Fairway · Big Bear City, CA 92314

$499,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1988 2,500 sqft lot $236/sqft · 16% below area Est $593k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Big Bear investment opportunity! 1011 W Fairway Blvd is ideally located near the golf course, ski resorts, and Big Bear Lake—placing it in a high-demand short-term rental area with year-round tourism. The home offers a bright, open layout with a cozy cabin feel that appeals to vacationers and supports strong occupancy. Easy access to Bear Mountain, Snow Summit, hiking, and local dining makes it a top choice for guests in every season. Perfect for investors seeking consistent rental income, a vacation home, or both—this property delivers on location, demand, and potential.

Key facts

• 2,500 sq ft lot
• Pool
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-564 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Big Bear City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#988 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 451 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,400/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 203% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $373k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $340,043 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $592,910
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -15.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1000 Eagle Mountain Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,970 (-7%)	3mo	$550,000	$279	70
42728 Timberline	0.52mi	3/3.5	2,122 (+0%)	3mo	$965,000	$455	67
1120 Mount Shasta Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,065 (-2%)	14mo	$760,000	$368	58
1159 Green Mountain Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,159 (+2%)	8mo	$750,000	$347	53
1126 Mount Shasta Rd	0.59mi	3/3.0	2,200 (+4%)	13mo	$640,000	$291	50
1109 Mount Shasta Rd	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,923 (-9%)	5mo	$425,000	$221	50
427 Belmont Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,816 (-14%)	6mo	$600,000	$330	48
289 Stony Creek Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,368 (+12%)	7mo	$1,005,000	$424	43
42515 Bear Loop	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,864 (-12%)	11mo	$775,000	$416	43
433 Ashwood Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-15%)	13mo	$749,000	$417	43
42443 Bear Loop	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,319 (+10%)	10mo	$950,000	$410	35
441 Woodcreek Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,394 (+13%)	11mo	$950,000	$397	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-116,855
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-148,301
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92314

• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,108/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-564

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,114

Max offer price $399,356

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1129 Robinhood Blvd Big Bear City, CA	4.0	3.0	1998	$3,800	$1.90	44d	1	0.28mi
145 Pinion Pl Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	44d	1	1.02mi
154 Mountain Lake Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	4.0	3.0	1962	$5,500	$2.80	44d	1	1.06mi
315 Northern Cross Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,150	$1.97	44d	1	1.25mi
272 Santa Clara Blvd Big Bear Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,450	$1.44	44d	1	1.31mi
1140 Vine Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.5	1592	$2,750	$1.73	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $520,000 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Prime Big Bear investment opportunity! 1011 W Fairway Blvd is ideally located near the golf course, ski resorts, and Big Bear Lake—placing it in a high-demand short-term rental area with year-round tourism. The home offers a bright, open layout with a cozy cabin feel that appeals to vacationers and supports strong occupancy. Easy access to Bear Mountain, Snow Summit, hiking, and local dining makes it a top choice for guests in every season. Perfect for investors seeking consistent rental income, a vacation home, or both—this property delivers on location, demand, and potential.

16. 2026-04-03
    historical $520,000 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Prime Big Bear investment opportunity! 1011 W Fairway Blvd is ideally located near the golf course, ski resorts, and Big Bear Lake—placing it in a high-demand short-term rental area with year-round tourism. The home offers a bright, open layout with a cozy cabin feel that appeals to vacationers and supports strong occupancy. Easy access to Bear Mountain, Snow Summit, hiking, and local dining makes it a top choice for guests in every season. Perfect for investors seeking consistent rental income, a vacation home, or both—this property delivers on location, demand, and potential.

17. 2022-02-17
    soldstatus $373,000 Closed 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath home located in Big Bear City. Watch the airplanes land and takeoff from your rear deck. Upgrades throughout. Recently painted interior. Located near convention center, airport and popular sledding area.

18. 2022-02-17
    soldstatus $373,000

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath home located in Big Bear City. Watch the airplanes land and takeoff from your rear deck. Upgrades throughout. Recently painted interior. Located near convention center, airport and popular sledding area.

19. 2021-12-14
    status Pending 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath home located in Big Bear City. Watch the airplanes land and takeoff from your rear deck. Upgrades throughout. Recently painted interior. Located near convention center, airport and popular sledding area.

20. 2021-11-15
    listed $373,000 Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath home located in Big Bear City. Watch the airplanes land and takeoff from your rear deck. Upgrades throughout. Recently painted interior. Located near convention center, airport and popular sledding area.

21. 2008-02-15
    historical
22. 2008-01-10
    listed $254,900
23. 2007-10-28
    historical
24. 2007-09-22
    price $268,900
25. 2007-09-01
    price $288,900
26. 2007-08-12
    listed $318,900
27. 2007-01-01
    historical
28. 2006-05-24
    historical
29. 2006-04-04
    listed $369,000
30. 2006-04-04
    listed $369,000
31. 2001-02-08
    soldstatus $100,000
32. 1992-01-16
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,108 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,108 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥82°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$5,108
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,264
• − Management: −$3,264
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$15,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear City

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #988
• US rank: #24706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear City, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 9,334
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,334
• Household income: $74,910
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 203.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -186.41%
• Current HPI: 341.9807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1633.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $520,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $520,000 CRMLS
• 2022-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $373,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-17 Sold (MLS) $373,000 GPSMLS
• 2021-12-14 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2021-11-15 Listed $373,000 GPSMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-01-10 Listed $254,900 CRMLS
• 2007-10-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-09-22 Price Changed $268,900 CRMLS
• 2007-09-01 Price Changed $288,900 CRMLS
• 2007-08-12 Listed $318,900 CRMLS
• 2007-01-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-05-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-04-04 Listed $369,000 CRMLS
• 2006-04-04 Listed $369,000 CRMLS
• 2001-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,108 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.