8806 Milby St · Needville, TX 77461

$100,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1997 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in the heart of Needville! Situated on approximately 0.44 acres, this property offers endless potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking for a project. The spacious lot offers room for additional improvements while enjoying the small-town charm and convenience of Needville. Located just minutes from Highway 36 with easy access to Rosenberg, Sugar Land, and surrounding Fort Bend County areas.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• 0.44 acres
• 0.44 acre lot

Tags

• 0.44 ACRES
• SPACIOUS LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 36

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area listed as 672; Living area listed as 672; Lot area approximately 0.4408 acres (19,200 square feet); Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: HOA information not specified

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (stories not otherwise specified); Entry level not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 1997; Wood siding exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Lot includes 'Other' features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not specified
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Window unit cooling; Heating and cooling present
• Interior features: 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.0% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.41%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,291
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $25,968
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,218/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $318	+0% $290	+5% $261	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $237	+0% $290	+5% $342	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $315	base $290	+0.5pp $264	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 423-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $100,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,218 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,218 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,218
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$491
• After-tax cash flow: $2,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Needville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $100,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,218 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.