311 Holly Hill Dr · Petersburg, VA 23805

$187,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1958 0.34 ac lot Est $259k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity! 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home features: eat-in kitchen, formal rooms, family room, laundry area, wood-burning fireplace, heat pump, vinyl siding and chain-linked fenced-in backyard. Great starter home or investment.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Separate dining room
• Large backyard

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking; Unpaved parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Shingle roof
• Construction: Built with brick, block, frame and drywall; Vinyl siding; Masonry foundation (crawl space)
• Exterior features: Unpaved driveway; Stoop; Landscaped, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Oven; Stove; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Partial carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with electric heating; Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace (masonry, wood burning); Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($718/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Hill Elementary (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #933 of 1,108 statewide, top 86%, 515 students, 101% FRL); Vernon Johns Middle (math 21% / reading 47%, grade F, #330 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 921 students, 99% FRL); Petersburg High (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 1,080 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $188k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,521 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,816
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 Holly Hill Dr	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,271 (-6%)	8mo	$214,000	$168	80
418 Blackwater Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+3%)	6mo	$277,500	$199	74
2046 Colston St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	1mo	$269,950	$192	73
215 Holly Hill Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+13%)	11mo	$275,000	$180	64
433 Blackwater Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$213,900	$171	63
464 Deerfield Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	11mo	$239,950	$192	62
2828 Trarich Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,406 (+4%)	2mo	$270,000	$192	59
2587 Pinehurst Dr	0.35mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$196,500	$157	56
530 Lock Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,252 (-7%)	12mo	$268,000	$214	56
2241 Fort Rice St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,161 (-14%)	9mo	$265,000	$228	56
2010 Walton St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+7%)	7mo	$277,320	$192	55
1946 Bishop St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	2mo	$299,999	$198	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-26,590
• Equity at exit: $27,957

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,325
• Equity at exit: $16,212

Cash invested: $52,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23805

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$983
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,952/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $187,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $113	+0% $60	+5% $7	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-4	+0% $60	+5% $124	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $108	base $60	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,875
• Closing costs: $5,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2217 Sedgwick St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	800	$1,254	$1.57	3d	2	0.22mi
200 Walnut Blvd Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,620	$1.53	45d	1	0.64mi
1025 S Crater Rd Petersburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	795	$1,409	$1.77	3d	10	0.99mi
1814 East Blvd Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	972	$1,275	$1.31	45d	1	1.14mi
1823 Brandon Ave Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1153	$1,600	$1.39	19d	1	1.16mi
915 Hampton Rd Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,750	$1.66	19d	1	1.19mi
531 N Azalea Rd Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	25d	1	1.33mi
709B Fort Hayes Ct Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1628	$1,795	$1.10	16d	1	1.47mi
200 Addison Way Petersburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,873	$1.89	3d	73	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $187,500 Active
2. 2014-07-25
   soldstatus $70,000 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Great Opportunity! 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home features: eat-in kitchen, formal rooms, family room, laundry area, wood-burning fireplace, heat pump, vinyl siding and chain-linked fenced-in backyard. Great starter home or investment.

3. 2014-06-16
   historical 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Great Opportunity! 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home features: eat-in kitchen, formal rooms, family room, laundry area, wood-burning fireplace, heat pump, vinyl siding and chain-linked fenced-in backyard. Great starter home or investment.

4. 2013-09-17
   listed $79,990 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Great Opportunity! 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home features: eat-in kitchen, formal rooms, family room, laundry area, wood-burning fireplace, heat pump, vinyl siding and chain-linked fenced-in backyard. Great starter home or investment.

5. 1972-08-29
   soldstatus $20,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,503
• − Property taxes: −$1,952
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$5,455
• Taxable loss: −$2,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $1,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petersburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,362
• Composite: 28.78/100
• National rank: #6670
• State rank: #131 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petersburg, VA
• County: Petersburg City · 21,408 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 21,408
• Household income: $60,807
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Petersburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,488 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 28,401 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 27,279 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 25,877 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 24,288 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Petersburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+72.8) · D 85.8% · R 13.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 72.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+72.8 2020: D+76.5 2016: D+77.0 2012: D+80.4 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.37%
• Current HPI: 426.599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+814.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $187,500 CVRMLS
• 2014-07-25 Sold (MLS) $70,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-06-16 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2013-09-17 Listed $79,990 CVRMLS
• 1972-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,952 · +29.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.