5431 Willow Glen Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1946 7,697 sqft lot $140/sqft · 20% above area Est $186k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5431 Willow Glen Dr, ideally located in Houston’s 77033 / South Park area, offering convenient access to major freeways including Loop 610, Highway 288, and Beltway 8. This central location provides an easy commute to Downtown Houston, the Texas Medical Center, and William P. Hobby Airport, while nearby shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences enhance day-to-day living. Situated in a well-established residential neighborhood, the property is close to parks, schools, and essential services, making it a well-connected option for homeowners or investors seeking accessibility and long-term potential in southeast Houston.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• 7,697 sq ft lot

Tags

• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1946; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials listed as unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10x11; one is 12x10'9")
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,853/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10142% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.48%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,722
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -9.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5831 Lyndhurst Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,212 (+0%)	2mo	$105,000	$87	76
7609 Saint Lo Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	1mo	$185,000	$137	69
5835 Kenilwood Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,275 (+6%)	2mo	$108,000	$85	69
5225 Longmeadow St	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (+7%)	2mo	$138,000	$107	66
5707 Lyndhurst Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,329 (+10%)	1mo	$200,000	$150	64
7338 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	2mo	$220,000	$179	62
8126 Marcy Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+3%)	1mo	$195,000	$157	60
5007 Northridge Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-12%)	2mo	$163,900	$153	58
7330 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-4%)	3mo	$154,900	$134	56
5951 Willow Glen Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,112 (-8%)	1mo	$105,000	$94	51
7606 Darnay Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,385 (+15%)	2mo	$129,000	$93	50
5823 Southgood St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+8%)	1mo	$217,900	$168	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,883
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $41,126
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,546/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	43d	1	0.22mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.29mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	15d	1	0.31mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	43d	1	0.46mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	43d	1	0.56mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	43d	1	0.60mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	43d	1	0.75mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	14d	1	0.77mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	43d	1	0.85mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	43d	1	0.88mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	0.89mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.89mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	24d	1	1.00mi
5537 Bataan Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	43d	1	1.00mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	12d	1	1.01mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	12d	1	1.01mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	11d	1	1.01mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	1.10mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	12d	1	1.11mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	1.13mi
5835 Southmont St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	1.18mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	1.21mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	1.21mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	1.23mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.28mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	7d	1	1.29mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	18d	1	1.45mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $169,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,650
13. 2026-05-13
    historical $1,650
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $175,000 Active 644-char remark
15. 2026-05-13
    historical
16. 2026-05-09
    price $172,000
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $1,650
18. 2026-04-03
    historical $1,650
19. 2026-04-03
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2026-04-03
    historical
21. 2026-03-05
    listed $1,650
22. 2026-03-04
    historical $1,650
23. 2026-03-03
    listed $174,000 Active
24. 2026-03-03
    historical
25. 2026-02-06
    price $1,650
26. 2026-02-06
    price $175,000
27. 2026-01-29
    price $1,595
28. 2026-01-14
    listed $1,650
29. 2026-01-13
    historical $1,600
30. 2026-01-06
    listed $180,000 Active
31. 2025-12-12
    listed $1,600
32. 2020-01-14
    soldstatus
33. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,546 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$547/yr (+$46/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,546
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$217
• After-tax cash flow: $3,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10462.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $174,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2020-01-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,546 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.