3063 Horizon Ln #1501 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$529,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · Condo public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2002 $855/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful unit in gorgeous quiet, gated community of Bridgewater Bay with excellent location close to shopping and beaches. First floor lakefront unit, with south east exposure across the street from the Club House, playground for kids and play courts. This beautiful bright unit is 3 bedrooms, 2 baths renovated with new tile and high quality laminate floors, baseboards, kitchen and bathroom cabinets and painting, bathrooms with new tiles, master bedroom walk in closet with built in shelving. Brand new stainless steel appliances and brand new washer and dryer. Screened lanai. One car attached garage. Clubhouse has the gym, sauna, entertainment room, entertainment pool and screened half Olymp

Key facts

• Built in shelving
• Screened lanai
• Lakefront unit

Tags

• LAKEFRONT UNIT
• SOUTH EAST EXPOSURE
• MASTER BEDROOM WALK IN CLOSET
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SCREENED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 524 units in the community
• Financial info: Pets allowed (call/conditional)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association fee includes management, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, pest control, recreation facilities, reserve fund, sewer, street lights, security, trash and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis courts, pickleball, basketball court, bocce court, putting green, playground, park, billiards/billiard room, management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 covered space, 1 garage space)
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Smoke detector(s); Gated community; Street lights
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story; Property faces northeast; Entry level: 1; Resale; Attached property
• Construction: Tile roof; Block, concrete and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Water feature; Guest house attached; Community pool; Reclaimed water irrigation; Southwest exposure; Lake view / waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Split bedroom layout; Entry level: 1
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Living/dining room; Pantry; Separate shower; Shower only; Cable TV; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedrooms; Double-hung windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $529k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $459k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $478k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $459k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 55% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,778/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($481k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $163k; list at $529k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $458,881 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-42,788
• Equity at exit: $161,452

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-28,950
• Equity at exit: $200,450

Cash invested: $148,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,774
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,864/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$855
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,003
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,280

Max offer price $458,881

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-247	+0% $-397	+5% $-547	+10% $-696
Rent	-10% $-774	-5% $-586	+0% $-397	+5% $-208	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-262	base $-397	+0.5pp $-534	+1.0pp $-673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,250
• Closing costs: $15,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	25d	1	0.05mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	25d	1	0.08mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	0.11mi
3048 Horizon Ln #1104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$5,150	$2.83	25d	1	0.11mi
3035 Horizon Ln #2206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	25d	1	0.12mi
3062 Driftwood Way #4301 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$6,500	$4.13	25d	1	0.13mi
2880 Citrus Lake Dr Unit Q201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,495	$1.57	15d	1	0.15mi
3057 Driftwood Way #4004 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$6,400	$3.52	25d	1	0.15mi
3017 Driftwood Way #3001 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$5,000	$3.61	25d	1	0.17mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	25d	1	0.19mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	15d	1	0.19mi
3296 Twilight Ln #6202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2133	$6,500	$3.05	15d	1	0.19mi
3049 Driftwood Way #3806 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$4,700	$2.59	25d	1	0.21mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	15d	1	0.21mi
3025 Driftwood Way #3203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$3,900	$3.12	25d	1	0.22mi
3029 Driftwood Way #3303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$4,000	$3.21	25d	1	0.25mi
3037 Driftwood Way #3505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	0.27mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	15d	1	0.29mi
7030 Lone Oak Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$6,400	$3.76	15d	1	0.34mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	15d	1	0.35mi
2730 Sailors Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$9,000	$5.29	25d	1	0.36mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	15d	1	0.38mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	15d	1	0.38mi
2835 Mizzen Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	25d	1	0.40mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	15d	1	0.42mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$5,250	$3.80	15d	1	0.42mi
7710 Ahoy Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,950	$1.87	25d	1	0.43mi
2476 Orchid Bay Dr Unit W201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$2,600	$1.35	15d	1	0.43mi
2651 Citrus Lake Dr Unit D302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,000	$4.00	15d	1	0.46mi
2516 Orchid Bay Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$4,750	$3.49	25d	1	0.47mi
2729 Branch Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,650	$2.03	25d	1	0.48mi
3664 El Segundo Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1680	$5,500	$3.27	25d	1	0.49mi
7720 Gardner Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1960	$5,500	$2.81	25d	1	0.49mi
2611 Citrus Lake Dr Unit C-203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$5,500	$3.22	15d	1	0.50mi
7416 Plumbago Bridge Rd #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,400	$1.96	15d	1	0.52mi
3687 El Segundo Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1680	$5,000	$2.98	25d	1	0.53mi
7762 Gardner Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$6,000	$3.73	25d	1	0.56mi
7518 Silver Trumpet Ln Unit Q102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	15d	1	0.56mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	25d	1	0.57mi
2541 Citrus Lake Dr Unit A-205 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,250	$3.30	15d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $855 · $10,260/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $529,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $529,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $529,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $529,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $529,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $529,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $529,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $529,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $529,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-02-18
    listed $529,000 Active
17. 2002-01-24
    soldstatus $163,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,864 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,391 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,632
• − Property taxes: −$3,864
• − Insurance: −$2,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,587
• − Management: −$4,587
• − HOA: −$10,260
• − Depreciation: −$15,389
• Taxable loss: −$13,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+224.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $529,000 FORTMLS
• 2002-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $163,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,864 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.