4008 38th Ave N · Birmingham, AL 35217

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1986 $100/sqft · 15% above area Est $305k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do not disturb tenants. Great investment property in the opportunity zone.

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 140 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $175k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,224 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.11%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -42.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4409 41st Pl N	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,793 (+2%)	2mo	$150,000	$84	73
4217 Greenwood St	0.49mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,808 (+3%)	13mo	$155,500	$86	56
3920 39th Ave N	0.11mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,502 (-14%)	9mo	$53,000	$35	56
4100 41st Ave N	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-14%)	8mo	$55,000	$37	52
3837 41st Ave N	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,554 (-12%)	23mo	$30,000	$19	39
4341 44th Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,548 (-12%)	24mo	$70,000	$45	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-33,183
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-33,179
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35217

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,252 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,019/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $159,753

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-37	+0% $-86	+5% $-136	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-136	+0% $-86	+5% $-37	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-42	base $-86	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4231 40th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1272	$850	$0.67	20d	1	0.29mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	44d	1	0.40mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	24d	1	0.40mi
4418 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1710	$925	$0.54	24d	1	0.52mi
4329 Pulaski St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,353	$1.09	24d	1	0.65mi
4344 Pulaski St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,050	$0.83	44d	1	0.66mi
4329 Harmon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$950	$0.77	4d	1	0.68mi
4329 Harmon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$950	$0.77	44d	1	0.68mi
1303 Main St Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1432	$1,300	$0.91	44d	1	0.68mi
619 Bell Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1550	$1,075	$0.69	44d	1	0.77mi
4925 43rd Way N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,461	$1.19	2d	1	0.89mi
4212 50th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1517	$1,595	$1.05	2d	1	0.89mi
732 Fulton Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	0.91mi
5015 42nd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	44d	1	0.93mi
1304 46th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1683	$670	$0.40	17d	1	1.16mi
1043 Jackson Blvd Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,095	$0.84	15d	1	1.16mi
1601 48th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1313	$1,200	$0.91	24d	1	1.19mi
1236 Elm Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1888	$950	$0.50	44d	1	1.19mi
1101 47th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,200	$0.93	24d	1	1.28mi
2807 34th St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1556	$1,100	$0.71	44d	1	1.31mi
1249 Waverly St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,000	$0.79	44d	1	1.32mi
1434 Thomason Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,100	$0.67	44d	1	1.35mi
1224 Sloan Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	2164	$1,200	$0.55	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-01-31
    listed $175,000 Active 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Do not disturb tenants. Great investment property in the opportunity zone.

16. 2004-12-23
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,019 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,019 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,019
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $-36/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,240
• Household income: $40,486
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 594.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.54%
• Current HPI: 117.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+207.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $175,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2004-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,019 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.