5835 Cherokee Rd #42 · Morada, CA 95215

$57,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 812 sqft · Manufactured · 186 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition 13 ac lot $70/sqft · at area comps Est $59k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom home in great condition in the Bel Air Estates, a Senior Community. Newer roof, appliances, toilet. Heater 2 years old.

Key facts

• 13.44 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $57k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 2.7% in Morada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#596 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Linden Unified (rural): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #806 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.87%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,113
• List price: $57,000
• Delta: -3.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5835 Cherokee Rd #41	0.07mi	2/2.0	880 (+8%)	2mo	$27,500	$31	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $38,155
• Equity at exit: $8,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $94,425
• Equity at exit: $4,928

Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95215

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$71 /mo · $855/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $583

Max offer price $57,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,250
• Closing costs: $1,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,000 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,000 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,000 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,000 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $57,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,000 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $57,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,000 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,000 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,000 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $57,000 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,000 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,000 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,000 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,000 Active 168 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,193
• − Property taxes: −$855
• − Insurance: −$1,082
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,462
• − Management: −$1,462
• − Depreciation: −$1,658
• Taxable income: $8,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,056
• After-tax cash flow: $6,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a fresh roof and updated appliances. It has a good curb appeal and could benefit from some exterior painting and flooring updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior walls — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both update flooring — hardwood floors are in good condition but could be refreshed
• Both update kitchen cabinets — white cabinets could be refreshed or replaced for a modern look

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior walls — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both update flooring — hardwood floors are in good condition but could be refreshed ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — white cabinets could be refreshed or replaced for a modern look ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621810
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,534
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #10030
• State rank: #806 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Morada

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #19273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 26,032

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% Two or more races 23% White 23% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.84%
• Current HPI: 1200.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B