29562 Winterstorm Ct · Winchester, CA 92596

$549,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,193 sqft · Condo public records · 115 Days on market

Built 2023 $251/sqft · 14% below area Est $637k · 14% under $157/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * PAID OFF SOLAR * * Welcome to this stunning 2023-built residence located in a premier, growing community of Winchester. Boasting 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 modern bathrooms across 2,193 sq. ft. of open-concept living space, this home perfectly balances luxury and practicality. The heartbeat of this home is its fully paid-off solar system, offering significant monthly savings and eco-friendly peace of mind from day one. The interior features high ceilings and a versatile layout designed for contemporary needs, whether you're hosting in the gourmet kitchen or relaxing in the primary suite. Resort-Style Community with vibrant, developing neighborhood, you’ll enjoy exclusive access to top-tier amenities including; Sparkling Pool & Spa/Hot Tub for year-round relaxation, Modern Clubhouse perfect for gatherings and events, Playgrounds & Tot Lots for outdoor adventure. Prime Location situated within the highly-regarded Hemet Unified School District, this property is ideal for those seeking quality education. Its strategic location provides effortless access to the best of the Inland Empire—just a short drive to the world-class wineries of Temecula, the shopping hubs of Menifee, and the recreational beauty of Diamond Valley Lake. Don’t miss your chance to own a nearly new home in one of Riverside County's most promising up-and-coming areas. Schedule your tour today and experience the perfect blend of small-town charm and modern convenience!

Key facts

• Spa hot tub
• Paid off solar
• Modern clubhouse

Tags

• PAID OFF SOLAR
• SPA HOT TUB
• MODERN CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• TOT LOTS
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $366k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winchester Elementary (683 students, 79% FRL); Rancho Viejo Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 975 students, 88% FRL); Tahquitz High (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #777 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,727 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,680 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.10%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $636,608
• List price: $549,900
• Delta: -13.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $214,626
• Equity at exit: $495,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $671,723
• Equity at exit: $1,068,335

Cash invested: $153,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,661 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$790 /mo · $9,475/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$157
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$769
• Net cashflow: $-1,167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,139

Max offer price $343,680

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-856	-5% $-1,012	+0% $-1,167	+5% $-1,323	+10% $-1,479
Rent	-10% $-1,457	-5% $-1,312	+0% $-1,167	+5% $-1,023	+10% $-878
Rate	-1.0pp $-890	-0.5pp $-1,028	base $-1,167	+0.5pp $-1,310	+1.0pp $-1,455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,475
• Closing costs: $16,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29587 Winterstorm Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	2054	$3,195	$1.56	14d	1	0.01mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1754	$3,100	$1.77	17d	1	0.04mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	0d	1	0.14mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,379	$1.99	0d	1	0.15mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	22d	1	0.16mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,459	$1.95	22d	1	0.16mi
29502 Marx Way Menifee, CA	3.0	2.5	1469	$3,150	$2.14	0d	1	0.16mi
29472 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	22d	1	0.17mi
29467 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,429	$1.94	22d	1	0.18mi
29474 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	9d	1	0.19mi
29475 Jack Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,269	$1.92	45d	1	0.19mi
29449 White Ash Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$3,379	$2.21	17d	1	0.22mi
29555 Copper Hill Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1823	$3,195	$1.75	4d	1	0.53mi
32202 Prairie Crossing Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,950	$1.51	0d	1	0.63mi
29335 Adams St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2419	$3,500	$1.45	45d	1	0.73mi
32376 Tyron Smith Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2590	$3,500	$1.35	9d	1	0.87mi
29600 Cherokee Trl Winchester, CA	5.0	4.0	2537	$3,495	$1.38	45d	1	0.87mi
32333 Wild West Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1751	$2,950	$1.68	45d	1	0.92mi
32568 Ventura Ln Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1650	$3,000	$1.82	22d	1	1.02mi
30816 Viper Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$3,249	$2.05	6d	1	1.05mi
28872 Camino Santiago Unit MAIN HOME Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2446	$3,595	$1.47	13d	1	1.18mi
30547 Operetta St Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1567	$3,100	$1.98	20d	1	1.19mi
28635 Matador Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1775	$3,395	$1.91	0d	1	1.19mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$7,500	$2.87	0d	1	1.21mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1873	$3,300	$1.76	17d	1	1.31mi
Autumn Blaze Dr , CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,075	$1.95	4d	1	1.45mi
31319 Autumn Blaze Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,350	$2.13	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $157 · $1,884/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $549,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,900 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,900 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $549,900 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $549,900 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $549,900 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $549,900 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $549,900 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $549,990 1491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1491 chars)

    * * PAID OFF SOLAR * * Welcome to this stunning 2023-built residence located in a premier, growing community of Winchester. Boasting 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 modern bathrooms across 2,193 sq. ft. of open-concept living space, this home perfectly balances luxury and practicality. The heartbeat of this home is its fully paid-off solar system, offering significant monthly savings and eco-friendly peace of mind from day one. The interior features high ceilings and a versatile layout designed for contemporary needs, whether you're hosting in the gourmet kitchen or relaxing in the primary suite. Resort-Style Community with vibrant, developing neighborhood, you’ll enjoy exclusive access to top-tier amenities including; Sparkling Pool & Spa/Hot Tub for year-round relaxation, Modern Clubhouse perfect for gatherings and events, Playgrounds & Tot Lots for outdoor adventure. Prime Location situated within the highly-regarded Hemet Unified School District, this property is ideal for those seeking quality education. Its strategic location provides effortless access to the best of the Inland Empire—just a short drive to the world-class wineries of Temecula, the shopping hubs of Menifee, and the recreational beauty of Diamond Valley Lake. Don’t miss your chance to own a nearly new home in one of Riverside County's most promising up-and-coming areas. Schedule your tour today and experience the perfect blend of small-town charm and modern convenience!

16. 2026-02-26
    listed $549,999 Active 1491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1491 chars)

    * * PAID OFF SOLAR * * Welcome to this stunning 2023-built residence located in a premier, growing community of Winchester. Boasting 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 modern bathrooms across 2,193 sq. ft. of open-concept living space, this home perfectly balances luxury and practicality. The heartbeat of this home is its fully paid-off solar system, offering significant monthly savings and eco-friendly peace of mind from day one. The interior features high ceilings and a versatile layout designed for contemporary needs, whether you're hosting in the gourmet kitchen or relaxing in the primary suite. Resort-Style Community with vibrant, developing neighborhood, you’ll enjoy exclusive access to top-tier amenities including; Sparkling Pool & Spa/Hot Tub for year-round relaxation, Modern Clubhouse perfect for gatherings and events, Playgrounds & Tot Lots for outdoor adventure. Prime Location situated within the highly-regarded Hemet Unified School District, this property is ideal for those seeking quality education. Its strategic location provides effortless access to the best of the Inland Empire—just a short drive to the world-class wineries of Temecula, the shopping hubs of Menifee, and the recreational beauty of Diamond Valley Lake. Don’t miss your chance to own a nearly new home in one of Riverside County's most promising up-and-coming areas. Schedule your tour today and experience the perfect blend of small-town charm and modern convenience!

17. 2025-10-20
    historical
18. 2025-08-30
    price $590,000
19. 2025-05-27
    listed $615,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,475 · $790/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,475 · $790/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,803
• − Property taxes: −$9,475
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,514
• − Management: −$3,514
• − HOA: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$15,997
• Taxable loss: −$24,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $549,990 CRMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $549,999 CRMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $590,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $615,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+435.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,475 · +143.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.