6541 Ilex Cir · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$479,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1996 6,098 sqft lot $343/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover Tranquility at Walden Oaks. If a quiet location and quality is what you are looking for, this one is for you! In a world that never seems to stop, finding a place where the noise of busy streets are not heard was near impossible until this villa was placed on the market. Nestled in a tranquil community on a quiet street is where you’ll discover this hidden gem with reasonable HOA fees. The charming villa features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and a den, providing ample space for comfortable living. The split bedroom layout ensures a sense of privacy and making it perfect for guest. The den, equipped with 2 closets, offers additional storage space and can be adapted to suit your needs

Key facts

• Den with 2 closets
• Split bedroom layout
• New refrigerator

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT
• DEN WITH 2 CLOSETS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW MICROWAVE
• DESIGNER KITCHEN CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fees ($425 quarterly; $605 master HOA quarterly); Total annual recurring fees approximately $4,120; One-time fees approximately $1,100; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, internet access, pickleball and tennis courts; HOA maintenance covers cable, internet/WiFi access, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, manager, exterior pest control, street lights and street maintenance; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Attached villa; 1-story / ranch; Rear exposure facing north; Residential property in Walden Oaks / Wellington at Lone Oak
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Built in 1996; Single-hung windows
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Lake view / waterfront on a lake; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den; Master bedroom on ground floor; First-floor bedroom; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Den / study; Screened lanai/porch; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door; Self-cleaning oven
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included / washer-dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $479k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $468k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $436k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 55% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,680/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $479k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $435,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $13,676
• Equity at exit: $146,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $84,073
• Equity at exit: $181,504

Cash invested: $134,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,944/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$343
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$983
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,072

Max offer price $479,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,750
• Closing costs: $14,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7030 Lone Oak Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$6,400	$3.76	13d	1	0.11mi
3035 Horizon Ln #2206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	23d	1	0.22mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	23d	1	0.28mi
2880 Citrus Lake Dr Unit Q201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,495	$1.57	13d	1	0.28mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	23d	1	0.28mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	13d	1	0.28mi
3048 Horizon Ln #1104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$5,150	$2.83	23d	1	0.30mi
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	23d	1	0.32mi
6654 Tannin Ln Unit B Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1441	$3,100	$2.15	23d	1	0.33mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	13d	1	0.34mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	13d	1	0.36mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	13d	1	0.36mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	23d	1	0.38mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	13d	1	0.39mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$5,250	$3.80	13d	1	0.39mi
3017 Driftwood Way #3001 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$5,000	$3.61	23d	1	0.40mi
2651 Citrus Lake Dr Unit D302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,000	$4.00	13d	1	0.40mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	13d	1	0.40mi
13466 Sumter Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$8,700	$4.74	23d	1	0.42mi
2611 Citrus Lake Dr Unit C-203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$5,500	$3.22	13d	1	0.43mi
3057 Driftwood Way #4004 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$6,400	$3.52	23d	1	0.43mi
3062 Driftwood Way #4301 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$6,500	$4.13	23d	1	0.44mi
3025 Driftwood Way #3203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$3,900	$3.12	23d	1	0.44mi
13441 Coronado Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$10,000	$5.44	23d	1	0.45mi
3029 Driftwood Way #3303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$4,000	$3.21	23d	1	0.46mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	13d	1	0.47mi
3049 Driftwood Way #3806 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$4,700	$2.59	23d	1	0.48mi
13435 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1837	$8,950	$4.87	23d	1	0.49mi
13423 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1831	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	0.49mi
2730 Sailors Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$9,000	$5.29	23d	1	0.50mi
2541 Citrus Lake Dr Unit A-205 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,250	$3.30	13d	1	0.50mi
3037 Driftwood Way #3505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.51mi
13379 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$4,400	$2.40	23d	1	0.53mi
7710 Ahoy Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,950	$1.87	23d	1	0.54mi
2835 Mizzen Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	23d	1	0.55mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	23d	1	0.61mi
7416 Plumbago Bridge Rd #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,400	$1.96	13d	1	0.63mi
2277 Arbour Walk Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	937	$2,540	$2.71	13d	25	0.64mi
2602 Fountain View Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$2,277	$2.29	13d	41	0.64mi
2516 Orchid Bay Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$4,750	$3.49	23d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $343 · $4,116/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $479,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $479,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $479,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $489,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $489,000 Active
16. 2001-09-18
    soldstatus $175,000
17. 1999-09-27
    soldstatus $144,500
18. 1996-03-01
    soldstatus $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,976 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,032/yr (+$169/mo · 104.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,831
• − Property taxes: −$1,944
• − Insurance: −$2,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,492
• − Management: −$4,492
• − HOA: −$4,116
• − Depreciation: −$13,935
• Taxable loss: −$2,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $6,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+249.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $489,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2001-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $144,500 Public Records
• 1996-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,944 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.