878 Mount Olympus Ave SE · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 287 Days on market

Built 1997 8,318 sqft lot $242/sqft · 23% below area Est $405k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FHA Assumable Loan w/ low rate. Bright & open floor plan offering a nice flow from the kitchen to the living room making it perfect for large gatherings. Vaulted ceiling, ceiling fan, propane stove(not connected). Fridge & range/oven about 2 yrs old. Laundry rm w/ sink & cabinets. Primary: BA w/ walk-in therapeutic tub, brm w/ walk-in closet, newer wall mounted TV stays. Roof less than 4 yrs old. Large fully fenced yard w/ spacious covered deck. Insulated shed. In-ground fire pit. Garage w/ cabinets, work bench, shelves & still comfortably fits 2 vehicles. Generator connector box in garage not hooked up. In OS Comm Club (2025 $195), offers parks, pools, sport courts

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vaulted ceiling
• Laundry room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• VAULTED CEILING
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN TUB
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Shores Elementary (240 students, 76% FRL); North Beach Junior High School (162 students, 78% FRL); North Beach Senior High School (177 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 655 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $210k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $209,881 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,998
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -23.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
789 Island Cir SE	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-4%)	1mo	$405,000	$330	73
934 Wawona Ave SE	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,166 (-9%)	3mo	$287,400	$246	60
821 Ketch Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-10%)	5mo	$290,000	$251	60
640 Lake Island Ave SE	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+2%)	5mo	$360,000	$274	59
801 Mount Olympus Ave SE	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,107 (-14%)	4mo	$310,000	$280	59
1045 Tonquin Ave SW	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-6%)	4mo	$368,000	$307	57
886 Pheasant Ct SW	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,159 (-10%)	6mo	$399,900	$345	56
193 Marine View Dr SE	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+3%)	7mo	$641,800	$486	55
762 Evergreen Ave SE	0.42mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,406 (+10%)	6mo	$387,000	$275	52
137 S Razor Clam Dr SW	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-11%)	0mo	$295,000	$258	51
857 Vagabond Ave SW	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,092 (-15%)	5mo	$300,000	$275	47
441 Laurel Ct SW	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,453 (+14%)	7mo	$775,581	$534	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-68,168
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-82,714
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,200/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $260,516

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-105	-5% $-192	+0% $-280	+5% $-368	+10% $-456
Rent	-10% $-446	-5% $-363	+0% $-280	+5% $-197	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-201	base $-280	+0.5pp $-360	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
677 Lake Island Ave SE Ocean Shores, WA	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,600	$1.92	45d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $310,000 Active 287 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $310,000 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $310,000 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $310,000 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 266 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 265 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 264 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    price $310,000
19. 2026-03-06
    price $329,900
20. 2026-02-19
    price $344,900
21. 2025-12-02
    price $365,000
22. 2025-10-11
    price $395,000
23. 2025-09-08
    listed $400,000 Active
24. 2020-05-18
    soldstatus $209,750 Sold
25. 2020-05-18
    soldstatus $209,750
26. 2020-04-07
    status Pending
27. 2020-03-11
    price $209,750
28. 2020-01-06
    listed $219,750 Active
29. 2014-11-03
    historical
30. 2014-10-31
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
31. 2014-10-30
    soldstatus $135,000
32. 2014-09-12
    status Pending
33. 2014-09-06
    price $135,000
34. 2014-06-11
    listed $145,000 Active
35. 2005-03-05
    soldstatus $162,000
36. 2005-03-04
    soldstatus $162,000
37. 2004-10-26
    listed $169,700
38. 2003-10-01
    soldstatus $118,000
39. 2003-10-01
    soldstatus $118,000
40. 2003-07-30
    listed $118,900
41. 1999-07-19
    soldstatus $119,900
42. 1997-08-18
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,038 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$838/yr (+$70/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥72°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$2,200
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$8,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,154
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+3344.4% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $310,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $329,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $344,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $365,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $395,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listed $400,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $209,750 Public Records
• 2020-05-18 Sold (MLS) $209,750 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-11 Price Changed $209,750 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-06 Listed $219,750 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-03 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-31 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-06 Price Changed $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-11 Listed $145,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-05 Sold (MLS) $162,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-26 Listed $169,700 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-01 Sold (MLS) $118,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-30 Listed $118,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 1997-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,200 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.