KNOX Plan · Fairhope, AL 36532

$375,050

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,979 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Knox, a thoughtfully crafted one-story home located in our South Bend Village new home community in Fairhope, Alabama. With 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,979 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space, the Knox perfectly combines modern comfort, style, and practicality. As you step through the front door, you're immediately greeted by two spacious bedrooms, a linen closet, and a full bathroom with a shower/tub combination. Across the hall sits direct access to the two-car garage, an additional bedroom, and the laundry room. Continuing to the end of the foyer, you enter the open-concept great room that blends the main living areas. The heart of the home is the chef-inspired kitchen, which features stunning slab countertops, shaker-style cabinetry, a peninsula island, high-end stainless-steel appliances, and a pantry. The kitchen is connected to the dining area and flows seamlessly into the bright and airy family room, illuminated by natural light that creates an inviting atmosphere for gatherings. A standout feature of the Knox is its well-designed split-bedroom layout, providing both privacy and comfort for everyone in the household. The spacious primary suite, accessible from the living room, is complete with two walk-in closets and a luxurious ensuite bathroom featuring a double vanity, an enclosed shower, and separate toilet area for maximum privacy.

Key facts

• One story home
• Slab countertops
• Peninsula island

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• SLAB COUNTERTOPS
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• PENINSULA ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $375,050 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $441,537.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J Larry Newton School (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C+, #74 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 827 students, 50% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1028 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,448 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.80%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,537
• List price: $375,050
• Delta: -15.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10186 Lamonica Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-10%)	2mo	$349,900	$195	79
10162 Lamonica Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-10%)	3mo	$315,900	$176	78
10212 Lamonica Ln #8	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-10%)	2mo	$349,700	$195	76
10128 Grove Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,011 (+2%)	12mo	$525,000	$261	73
14942 State Highway 181	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (-0%)	6mo	$394,500	$200	61
14142 Pecan Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,217 (+12%)	16mo	$472,000	$213	49
10210 County Road 24	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,733 (-12%)	5mo	$403,000	$233	40
10170 County Road 24	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,267 (+15%)	3mo	$385,000	$170	34
9766 County Road 24	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,273 (+15%)	13mo	$992,500	$437	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-142,479
• Equity at exit: $65,835

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-215,647
• Equity at exit: $38,176

Cash invested: $123,630 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $362,879 ($209/sqft)
• Median days on market: 15 d
• This list price: 80% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1028
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$552 /mo · $6,623/yr
• Insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-1,112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,862

Max offer price $280,582

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-807	-5% $-960	+0% $-1,112	+5% $-1,265	+10% $-1,417
Rent	-10% $-1,306	-5% $-1,209	+0% $-1,112	+5% $-1,015	+10% $-918
Rate	-1.0pp $-890	-0.5pp $-1,000	base $-1,112	+0.5pp $-1,227	+1.0pp $-1,343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,384
• Closing costs: $13,246
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $375,050 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $375,050 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $375,050 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $375,050 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $375,050 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $375,050 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $375,050 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $375,050 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $375,050 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $375,050 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $375,050 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $375,050 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $375,050 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $375,050 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $375,050 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $375,050 Active 185 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $375,050 Active 182 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $375,050 Active 181 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $375,050 Active 180 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $375,050 Active 179 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $375,050 Active 178 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $375,050 Active 176 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $375,050 Active 175 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $375,050 Active 174 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $375,050 Active 173 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $375,050 Active 172 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $375,050 Active 171 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $375,050 Active 170 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $375,050 Active 169 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $375,050 Active 168 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $375,050 Active 167 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $375,050 Active 166 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $375,050 Active 165 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $375,050 Active 164 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $375,050 Active 163 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $375,050 Active 162 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $375,050 Active 161 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $375,050 Active 160 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $375,050 Active 159 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $375,050 Active 158 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $375,050 Active 157 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $375,050 Active 156 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $375,050 Active 155 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $375,050 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $375,050 Active 150 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $375,050 Active 149 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $375,050 Active 147 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $375,050 Active 145 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $375,050 Active 144 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $375,050 Active 143 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,733
• − Property taxes: −$6,623
• − Insurance: −$2,208
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − Depreciation: −$12,845
• Taxable loss: −$21,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,200
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Knox Plan is a well-maintained, move-in-ready home with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary J Larry Newton School C+ AL #74/627 Nat'l #8,415/41,679 Middle Fairhope Middle School A- AL #3/257 Nat'l #1,272/14,009 High Fairhope High School F AL #22/305 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $374,650 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Listed $373,900 Zillow