206 Trailwind St · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1998 0.33 ac lot Est $189k · 10% under $8/mo HOA ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of space and convenience in this meticulously maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Gun Barrel City. Topped with a long-lasting metal roof, the interior boasts an expansive layout featuring two distinct living areas and two separate dining areas, offering flexibility for a home office, media room, or large family gatherings. Every inch of this residence reflects pride of ownership, ensuring a move-in-ready experience that is rare to find. Location is everything, and this property puts you right in the center of it all. You are situated less than 5 minutes from Highway 175 for easy commuting, and just moments away from UT Health (ETMC), local shopping centers, a

Key facts

• Two dining areas
• Metal roof
• Fully fenced

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• TWO DINING AREAS
• VERSATILE SHED
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP
• FULLY FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Spring Valley St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,340 (+11%)	8mo	$210,000	$90	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,911
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,991
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,613/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,398

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $261	+0% $213	+5% $164	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $147	+0% $213	+5% $278	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $256	base $213	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Cottonwood Trl Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$1,980	$1.07	45d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-31
   price $170,000
4. 2026-02-12
   listed $175,000 Active
5. 1998-03-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,613 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,498/yr (+$125/mo · 92.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,613
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
• − Management: −$1,601
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$52
• After-tax cash flow: $2,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gun Barrel City, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 1998-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,613 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.