27282 Cheapside Rd · Cape Charles, VA 23310

$110,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1950 1.00 ac lot $56/sqft · 75% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three separate dwellings under the same Tax Map #. Property includes a primary house, Single - wide and double-wide. The house and the double-wide are in need of extensive rehab. The trailer appears to be livable. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS. SELLERS WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY REPAIRS. The primary house and the trailer share the well, each property has its own septic. Several Bedrooms and bathrooms across the 3 properties. Heating systems varies across the properties, condition/functionality unknown. Condition/functionality of all appliances are unknown.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 1.2% in Cape Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#420 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, cost of living D+.
• Northampton County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #103 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $764 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northampton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,870 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.25%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,000
• List price: $110,500
• Delta: -74.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3269 Sherwood Gate	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,005 (+1%)	1mo	$440,000	$219	62
3159 Sapphire Ct	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,893 (-5%)	13mo	$460,000	$243	50
27221 Castle Row	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-12%)	14mo	$415,000	$239	46
27333 Gregory Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,821 (-8%)	14mo	$415,000	$228	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $30,094
• Equity at exit: $16,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $87,917
• Equity at exit: $9,554

Cash invested: $30,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23310

• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$579
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $447/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $110,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $817	-5% $785	+0% $754	+5% $723	+10% $692
Rent	-10% $612	-5% $683	+0% $754	+5% $825	+10% $896
Rate	-1.0pp $810	-0.5pp $782	base $754	+0.5pp $726	+1.0pp $696

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,625
• Closing costs: $3,315
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,500 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,500 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,500 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,500 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,500 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,500 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $110,500 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $125,000 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    Three separate dwellings under the same Tax Map #. Property includes a primary house, Single - wide and double-wide. The house and the double-wide are in need of extensive rehab. The trailer appears to be livable. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS. SELLERS WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY REPAIRS. The primary house and the trailer share the well, each property has its own septic. Several Bedrooms and bathrooms across the 3 properties. Heating systems varies across the properties, condition/functionality unknown. Condition/functionality of all appliances are unknown.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $906 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$459/yr (+$38/mo · 102.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,190
• − Property taxes: −$447
• − Insurance: −$552
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − Depreciation: −$3,215
• Taxable income: $7,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,842
• After-tax cash flow: $7,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northampton County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102710
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,253
• Composite: 40.63/100
• National rank: #3687
• State rank: #103 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cape Charles

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #18001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,934

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,360 people
• By 2030: 10,838 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 9,696 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 8,764 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 6,885 · -39.4%
• By 2100: 4,891 · -56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 28% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.7% · R 46.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+9.3 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.64%
• Current HPI: 282.274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $125,000 ESAR

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $447 · +46.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.