2920 Harpoon Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1988 4,748 sqft lot $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS! * Welcome to a boater’s paradise in St. James City! This prime waterfront property features an amazing location on intersecting canals with direct, unrestricted Gulf access and no bridges to slow you down. The deep-water setup comes complete with a concrete seawall (reinforced in April 2022) and a private dock equipped with a 10,000-lb boat lift (installed in 2022). Situated in a highly desirable neighborhood with NO 55+ age restrictions and an incredibly low HOA fee, this property represents a phenomenal redevelopment opportunity. It sustained significant damage from hurricanes. Whether you choose to repair the existing structure or LIKELY remove and replace it

Key facts

• Direct gulf access
• Concrete seawall
• Private dock

Tags

• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• DIRECT GULF ACCESS
• CONCRETE SEAWALL
• PRIVATE DOCK
• 10
• 000-LB BOAT LIFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $25; Community boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking for two vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Public maintained paved road
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces east; Resale property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Patio; Cul-de-sac lot; West exposure; Canal access with navigable water and intersecting canal; Seawall

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; No notable interior features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $169k).
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.82%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $432,294
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2970 Sloop Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,374 (+4%)	22mo	$449,900	$327	71
3122 Binnacle Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+14%)	11mo	$305,000	$202	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $60,912
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $167,805
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,755/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$818
• Net cashflow: $1,380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,150

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,476	-5% $1,428	+0% $1,380	+5% $1,332	+10% $1,285
Rent	-10% $1,072	-5% $1,226	+0% $1,380	+5% $1,534	+10% $1,688
Rate	-1.0pp $1,465	-0.5pp $1,423	base $1,380	+0.5pp $1,337	+1.0pp $1,292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.19mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.24mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.24mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	24d	1	0.31mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $169,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $169,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,755 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,755 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$3,755
• − Insurance: −$5,964
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,741
• − Management: −$3,741
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $15,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,637
• After-tax cash flow: $12,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+482.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $169,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $180,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $190,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-14 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $201,500 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-11 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $225,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $245,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $180,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $220,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-12-13 Listed $249,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-10-19 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2023-10-02 Price Changed $259,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-06-08 Price Changed $269,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-05-17 Price Changed $279,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-04-24 Listed $299,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-16 Sold (MLS) $136,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-02-08 Price Changed $140,000 FORTMLS
• 1999-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $104,300 Public Records
• 1987-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,755 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.