35841 Avignon Ct · French Valley, CA 92596

$680,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2002 7,841 sqft lot Est $685k · at est. $11/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story Winchester home offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 3-car garage with a functional layout suited for both everyday living and entertaining. Fresh interior paint and brand-new carpet give the home a clean, move-in ready feel, while the open living spaces provide plenty of natural light throughout. A front courtyard creates a welcoming entry and additional outdoor space to enjoy. Inside, the open-concept kitchen and living area serve as the heart of the home, offering a seamless flow for gathering and daily living. Low-maintenance landscaping helps keep upkeep simple, allowing more time to enjoy the property. Conveniently located within the Temecula Valley Unified School D

Key facts

• Front courtyard
• Open-concept kitchen
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FRONT COURTYARD
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No accessory dwelling unit
• Financial info: Subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Dutch Village Master Association; Annual HOA fee of $133; Community features include gutters, curbs, street lighting, storm drains, sidewalks, suburban setting, and a park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage parking for 3 cars; Total of 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-family house; Single-story; Entry at front; Flat tile roof; Stucco exterior
• Construction: Stucco construction; Flat tile roof; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Wood fencing; No pool; Has view; Lot in 0-1 unit/acre range

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Breakfast counter/bar; Formal dining room; Separate eating area
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Front entry; One level; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom fireplace; Fireplaces in living room and family room; Has laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $680k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $450k (33.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $374k (45.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $374k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $73k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$117k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $373,837 (45.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.22%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $684,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31363 Mccartney Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,345 (-3%)	1mo	$610,000	$260	86
31561 Anzio	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,492 (+3%)	0mo	$604,750	$243	73
31556 Umbria Ln	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,492 (+3%)	3mo	$649,900	$261	66
31727 Umbria Ln	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,492 (+3%)	2mo	$615,000	$247	62
31749 Pompei Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,492 (+3%)	0mo	$659,000	$264	60
36143 Tahoe St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,122 (-12%)	2mo	$600,000	$283	54
36035 Pepperdine Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,628 (+9%)	1mo	$879,900	$335	54
36123 Joltaire	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,122 (-12%)	1mo	$625,000	$295	53
36171 Joltaire	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,122 (-12%)	2mo	$589,000	$278	51
31855 McCartney Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,134 (-12%)	3mo	$615,000	$288	50
35078 Waimea	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,217 (-8%)	2mo	$628,000	$283	49
35392 Corte Los Flores	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,081 (-14%)	3mo	$746,000	$358	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $276,080
• Equity at exit: $612,598

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $858,312
• Equity at exit: $1,321,090

Cash invested: $190,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,566
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,772/yr
• Insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $-1,305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,390

Max offer price $449,524

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-920	-5% $-1,112	+0% $-1,305	+5% $-1,497	+10% $-1,690
Rent	-10% $-1,600	-5% $-1,452	+0% $-1,305	+5% $-1,157	+10% $-1,009
Rate	-1.0pp $-962	-0.5pp $-1,132	base $-1,305	+0.5pp $-1,481	+1.0pp $-1,660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $170,000
• Closing costs: $20,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36026 Kiel Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2366	$3,295	$1.39	0d	1	0.22mi
36264 Capri Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1999	$3,300	$1.65	20d	1	0.46mi
35350 Marabella Ct Unit 35350 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,300	$1.71	0d	1	0.48mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	18d	1	0.72mi
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	23d	1	0.73mi
30360 Laviste Ct Murrieta, CA	5.0	4.0	2772	$3,950	$1.42	45d	1	1.07mi
35808 Chalet Ct Murrieta, CA	5.0	2.5	2718	$3,500	$1.29	14d	1	1.14mi
30508 Copper Rose Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.5	3200	$4,100	$1.28	45d	1	1.15mi
34715 Ribbon Grass Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2319	$3,800	$1.64	0d	1	1.25mi
34806 Wind Poppy Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.5	3321	$3,900	$1.17	14d	1	1.38mi
37184 Running Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1991	$3,550	$1.78	25d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $680,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $680,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $680,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $680,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,772 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,168 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,091
• − Property taxes: −$4,772
• − Insurance: −$3,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,589
• − Management: −$3,589
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$19,782
• Taxable loss: −$28,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,838
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $680,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,772 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.