Clayton 84 Duck River Estates Plan · Columbia, TN 38401

$168,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss out on this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an open floor plan, kitchen pantry, spacious primary suite and more! Call us today to book a tour!

Key facts

• Listed 58 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $168,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: New construction plan: Clayton 84 Duck River Estates; Plan-based residential property
• Construction: Living area approximately 1568 (plan); Built as part of the Clayton 84 Duck River Estates plan
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (standard for new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $168,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.8% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 429 students, 0% FRL); E. A. Cox Middle School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #284 of 333 statewide, top 86%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Columbia Central High School (math 7% / reading 27%, grade F, #225 of 332 statewide, top 69%, 1,474 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1129 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,960 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $168,000
• Delta: -43.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-71,238
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-77,995
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1129
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $238,409

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-218	-5% $-321	+0% $-425	+5% $-529	+10% $-632
Rent	-10% $-595	-5% $-510	+0% $-425	+5% $-340	+10% $-255
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-349	base $-425	+0.5pp $-503	+1.0pp $-582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,500	$1.16	14d	1	1.27mi
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	18d	1	1.28mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,799	$1.73	0d	18	1.40mi
213 Granada Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,225	$1.09	0d	1	1.40mi
721 Poplar St Unit A Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	45d	1	1.44mi
721 Poplar St Unit B Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	5d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $168,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $168,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $168,000 Active 154-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$2,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$10,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,510
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Clayton 84 Duck River Estates is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and flooring updates to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with a more modern style can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with a more modern style can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 121,382 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2026.0

Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B