5630 Samovar Dr · New Orleans, LA 70126

$274,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,614 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1984 5,501 sqft lot $59/sqft · 14% below area Est $319k · 14% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this spacious 4,600 sq ft retreat in West Lake Forest, tucked away on a quiet, established block. This 4-bedroom, 4-bath brick home blends privacy, space, and functionality with many thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find fresh paint, custom crown molding, and a bright open living and dining area built for entertaining. The kitchen features timeless black granite countertops, solid wood cabinetry, built-in appliances, a large bay window, and a generous walk-in pantry. A versatile main-level bonus suite with spa-style bath is great for guests, while a private den behind French doors offers the ideal flex space for work or relaxation. Upstairs, enjoy spacious bedrooms with built-ins and abundant natural light. The owner's suite is a true retreat with a sitting area, balcony, dual bathrooms, and an oversized walk-in closet. Additional highlights include an upstairs laundry room, dedicated office/flex space, a private terrace with garden beds, and a large workshop shed wired for electricity. Equipped with 3 water heaters, 2 HVAC systems, and located in an X flood zone--this home delivers space, comfort, and value. Don't wait- schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinetry
• Built-in appliances
• 5,501 sq ft lot

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN QUALITY LIVING SPACE
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• SOLID WOOD CABINETRY
• BLACK GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features: insulation and efficient lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with garage door opener; Off-street parking; Three or more parking spaces
• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2 stories; Raised foundation; Brick construction; Shingle roof; Property condition: Excellent
• Construction: Built with brick; Shingle roof; Raised foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Brick and concrete patio/porch; Shed(s); City lot; Rectangular lot (50 x 110)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 12
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with multiple heating units; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fan(s); Carbon monoxide detector; Jetted tub; Pantry; Pull-down attic stairs

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in New Orleans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in LA, #1,383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D.
• Orleans Parish (urban): math 11% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #69 of 98 in LA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 710 units permitted in Orleans Parish in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,127/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 1767% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,698 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,069
• List price: $274,000
• Delta: -12.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6755 Lake Willow Dr	0.49mi	4/5.5	5,243 (+14%)	9mo	$545,000	$104	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-56,254
• Equity at exit: $40,854

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-80,437
• Equity at exit: $23,691

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70126

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,804/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,238

Max offer price $258,536

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $-10	+0% $-88	+5% $-165	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-172	+0% $-88	+5% $-4	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-18	base $-88	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on marketlisting id $274,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $279,000 Active 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Don't miss this spacious 4,600 sq ft retreat in West Lake Forest, tucked away on a quiet, established block. This 4-bedroom, 4-bath brick home blends privacy, space, and functionality with many thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find fresh paint, custom crown molding, and a bright open living and dining area built for entertaining. The kitchen features timeless black granite countertops, solid wood cabinetry, built-in appliances, a large bay window, and a generous walk-in pantry. A versatile main-level bonus suite with spa-style bath is great for guests, while a private den behind French doors offers the ideal flex space for work or relaxation. Upstairs, enjoy spacious bedrooms with built-ins and abundant natural light. The owner's suite is a true retreat with a sitting area, balcony, dual bathrooms, and an oversized walk-in closet. Additional highlights include an upstairs laundry room, dedicated office/flex space, a private terrace with garden beds, and a large workshop shed wired for electricity. Equipped with 3 water heaters, 2 HVAC systems, and located in an X flood zone--this home delivers space, comfort, and value. Don't wait- schedule your private showing today!

17. 2026-05-05
    listed $279,000 Active 1217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Don't miss this spacious 4,600 sq ft retreat in West Lake Forest, tucked away on a quiet, established block. This 4-bedroom, 4-bath brick home blends privacy, space, and functionality with many thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find fresh paint, custom crown molding, and a bright open living and dining area built for entertaining. The kitchen features timeless black granite countertops, solid wood cabinetry, built-in appliances, a large bay window, and a generous walk-in pantry. A versatile main-level bonus suite with spa-style bath is great for guests, while a private den behind French doors offers the ideal flex space for work or relaxation. Upstairs, enjoy spacious bedrooms with built-ins and abundant natural light. The owner's suite is a true retreat with a sitting area, balcony, dual bathrooms, and an oversized walk-in closet. Additional highlights include an upstairs laundry room, dedicated office/flex space, a private terrace with garden beds, and a large workshop shed wired for electricity. Equipped with 3 water heaters, 2 HVAC systems, and located in an X flood zone--this home delivers space, comfort, and value. Don't wait- schedule your private showing today!

18. 2026-03-19
    listed $279,999 Active
19. 2024-02-19
    listed $299,000
20. 2023-01-09
    listed $299,000
21. 2022-10-24
    price $299,000
22. 2022-10-05
    listed $299,000
23. 2022-08-06
    price $375,000
24. 2022-06-10
    listed $375,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$1,804
• − Insurance: −$2,168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$5,851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orleans Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201170
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -52.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -46.00%
• Median HH income: $37,011
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9271
• State rank: #69 of 98 in LA

Livability — New Orleans

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Orleans, LA
• County: Orleans Parish · 338,817 people
• City population: 338,817
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 27,047
• Household income: $41,709
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1767.0

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 513,025 people
• By 2030: 575,781 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 700,174 · +36.5%
• By 2050: 826,541 · +61.1%
• By 2075: 1,123,374 · +119.0%
• By 2100: 1,355,609 · +164.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% White 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+67.0) · D 82.2% · R 15.2% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: 60.3pp · 2024: 67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+67.0 2020: D+68.2 2016: D+66.2 2012: D+62.5 2008: D+60.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.35%
• Current HPI: 177.355
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-25.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $279,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-05 Listed $279,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $279,999 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-02-19 Listed $299,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-01-09 Listed $299,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-10-24 Price Changed $299,000 GSREIN
• 2022-10-05 Listed $299,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-08-06 Price Changed $375,000 GSREIN
• 2022-06-10 Listed $375,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,804 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.