1412 #3-206a N Burlington Rd Unit 3-206 · Two Harbors, MN 55616

$59,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2007 Excellent condition $47/sqft · 16% below area Est $70k · 16% under · waterfront $93/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sale price is for a 1/8 interval share of this unit. Are you looking for a beautiful, serene, and luxurious condo along Minnesota's Famous North Shore? Look no further! Burlington Bay is selling condos offering stunning views of Lake Superior and a luxurious living experience that you won't find anywhere else along the Shore. Inventory available along the North Shore is extremely low (at times non-existent). This is a rare opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of the most desirable locations in the Midwest. The condos feature spacious living areas, modern appliances, and high-end finishes that will make you feel like royalty. Enjoy amenities such as an indoor pool, indoor and outdoo

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Sauna
• Indoor pool

Tags

• INDOOR POOL
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR HOT TUBS
• SAUNA
• FITNESS CENTER
• WALKING TRAILS
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual taxes listed (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: Association: Superior Shores Resort; Monthly association fee of $93.75; HOA covers controlled access, hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, parking, professional management, recreation facilities, shared amenities, and snow removal; Shared community rooms including amusement/party room, community room, exercise room and other shared spaces

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking; Open parking lot
• Security: Controlled access (included in HOA)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric and natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Attached property; Four-or-more-level split; Entry/main level finished (main level finished area listed); Above-grade finished living area
• Construction: Foundation dimensions 46x36 and 16x10; Foundation area listed; Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Lakefront on Lake Superior; No road between waterfront and home; Irregular lot shape

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Freezer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Accessible elevator installed; Door lever handles; No internal stairs; Two fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $59k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#62 in MN, #1,444 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Superior Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $57,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.03%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,413
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -16.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 5th Ave	1.27mi	2/1.0	1,250 (0%)	1mo	$212,000	$170	60
135 1st Ave	0.89mi	2/2.0	1,204 (-4%)	7mo	$290,000	$241	53
836 7th Ave	1.28mi	2/1.5	1,295 (+4%)	4mo	$212,000	$164	53
315 2nd Ave	0.96mi	2/1.5	1,344 (+8%)	9mo	$205,000	$153	43
733 13th Ave	1.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,193 (-5%)	8mo	$261,500	$219	42
428 12th Ave	0.87mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,355 (+8%)	6mo	$260,000	$192	41
401 12th Ave	0.82mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+8%)	8mo	$321,000	$237	40
415 10th Ave	0.84mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (-5%)	10mo	$175,000	$147	40
417 1st Ave	1.08mi	2/2.0	1,102 (-12%)	8mo	$190,000	$172	39
830 8th Ave	1.25mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,365 (+9%)	6mo	$190,000	$139	38
806 5th Ave	1.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	1mo	$165,000	$153	32
405 10th Ave	0.82mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,118 (-11%)	11mo	$258,000	$231	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $21,230
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $58,345
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55616

• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $523	-5% $503	+0% $482	+5% $462	+10% $441
Rent	-10% $384	-5% $433	+0% $482	+5% $531	+10% $581
Rate	-1.0pp $512	-0.5pp $497	base $482	+0.5pp $467	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $59,000 Active 1187-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $5,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $4,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This luxury condo is in excellent condition with stunning views of Lake Superior. It offers a serene and luxurious living experience, making it a rare opportunity in a desirable location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Outdoor lighting — Improved lighting can make the property more inviting and safer

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Outdoor lighting — Improved lighting can make the property more inviting and safer ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Superior Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2740740
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,958
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4399
• State rank: #191 of 301 in MN

Livability — Two Harbors

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Two Harbors, MN
• Population (ZIP): 7,277

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,943 people
• By 2030: 9,437 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 8,326 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 7,365 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 6,008 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 5,038 · -49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Scottish 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.1pp · 2024: 3.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.9 2020: D+3.5 2016: D+2.2 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+22.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.94%
• Current HPI: 182.619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $59,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid