1049 N Boulder Dr · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,350,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1973 0.35 ac lot $446/sqft · 7% below area Est $1451k · 7% under $218/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enduring desert elegance is abundant in this charming Boulders home. Featuring a rare four-bedroom floorplan, this residence offers the flexibility so many buyers seek--perfect for hosting guests, creating a dedicated office, or accommodating multi-generational living without compromise. Warm architectural details set the tone, with soft stucco finishes, subtle vigas. The thoughtfully designed layout flows effortlessly from the open-concept living spaces to the private bedroom retreats, blending comfort and functionality. Multiple private patios invite dining al fresco while taking in desert and mountain views.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• FOUR BEDROOM FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACES
• PRIVATE BEDROOM RETREATS
• MULTIPLE PRIVATE PATIOS
• DESERT AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.16M (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.16M (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 84% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $92k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $83k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$147k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $600k; list at $1.35M implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,161,646 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.34%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,451,256
• List price: $1,350,000
• Delta: -6.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3106 E Arroyo Hondo Rd	0.18mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,033 (+0%)	3mo	$1,400,000	$462	82
1300 Coyote Pass --	0.32mi	4/3.0	3,167 (+4%)	9mo	$1,475,000	$466	66
1702 E Staghorn Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,312 (+9%)	7mo	$1,450,000	$438	64
3120 Arroyo Hondo --	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,824 (-7%)	8mo	$1,450,000	$513	60
7373 E Clubhouse Dr #24	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,059 (+1%)	4mo	$1,600,000	$523	57
1401 E Boulder Pass --	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,810 (-7%)	10mo	$1,250,000	$445	55
7665 E Old Paint Trl	0.40mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,350 (+11%)	1mo	$3,100,000	$925	54
3119 Arroyo Hondo --	0.29mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,397 (+12%)	10mo	$1,525,000	$449	50
36425 N UP & Down Pl	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,177 (+5%)	10mo	$1,325,000	$417	46
34483 N Ironwood Rd	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,209 (+6%)	3mo	$2,050,000	$639	45
34858 N 81st St	0.72mi	4/3.0	3,375 (+11%)	0mo	$1,399,000	$415	43
35824 N Tom Darlington Dr	0.68mi	3/4.0 (-1)	3,327 (+10%)	12mo	$1,350,000	$406	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $466,821
• Equity at exit: $859,871

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $1,316,734
• Equity at exit: $1,569,098

Cash invested: $378,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,080
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,165/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,439
• Net cashflow: $1,053

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,283

Max offer price $1,350,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,500
• Closing costs: $40,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1063 N Boulder Dr Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3035	$12,000	$3.95	43d	1	0.17mi
1816 Eagle Claw Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2540	$9,000	$3.54	43d	1	0.21mi
3105 Arroyo Hondo Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3156	$17,000	$5.39	11d	1	0.22mi
1613 N Quartz Valley Ct Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2831	$12,000	$4.24	43d	1	0.33mi
1404 Boulder Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	2862	$12,000	$4.19	43d	1	0.38mi
1314 Coyote Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2786	$12,000	$4.31	43d	1	0.41mi
3000 Ironwood Rd Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3930	$13,400	$3.41	43d	1	0.42mi
7723 E Cassia Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3540	$10,000	$2.82	43d	1	0.45mi
7526 E Club Villa Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2557	$7,500	$2.93	43d	1	0.50mi
8115 E Sand Flower Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	3223	$3,800	$1.18	24d	1	0.81mi
7485 E Tumbleweed Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3083	$18,000	$5.84	43d	1	0.86mi
8193 E Sand Flower Dr Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.5	3760	$10,000	$2.66	43d	1	0.88mi
34125 N Boulders Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	3000	$12,500	$4.17	24d	1	0.97mi
7500 E Boulders Pkwy #67 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2448	$12,000	$4.90	43d	1	0.98mi
7500 E Boulders Pkwy #77 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2276	$12,000	$5.27	24d	1	0.98mi
7872 E Thorntree Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2571	$11,500	$4.47	43d	1	1.04mi
33872 N 74th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	3075	$12,000	$3.90	43d	1	1.10mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	43d	1	1.11mi
7974 E Evening Glow Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	2964	$9,500	$3.21	43d	1	1.19mi
33667 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	4.5	3136	$10,000	$3.19	43d	1	1.21mi
7149 E Night Glow Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2254	$5,500	$2.44	43d	1	1.22mi
7155 E Night Glow Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2161	$6,000	$2.78	43d	1	1.23mi
6884 E Amber Sun Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2547	$9,500	$3.73	43d	1	1.24mi
33690 N 71st Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2293	$8,000	$3.49	43d	1	1.33mi
34061 N 67th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2393	$7,000	$2.93	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,350,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,350,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    listed $1,350,000 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Enduring desert elegance is abundant in this charming Boulders home. Featuring a rare four-bedroom floorplan, this residence offers the flexibility so many buyers seek--perfect for hosting guests, creating a dedicated office, or accommodating multi-generational living without compromise. Warm architectural details set the tone, with soft stucco finishes, subtle vigas. The thoughtfully designed layout flows effortlessly from the open-concept living spaces to the private bedroom retreats, blending comfort and functionality. Multiple private patios invite dining al fresco while taking in desert and mountain views.

16. 2017-08-15
    soldstatus $600,000 Closed 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Welcome to The Boulders ...... internationally known and sought after luxury resort living in the Sonoran Desert ! This unique and rare 4 bedroom/3 Bath patio home is a classic southwest contemporary designed for sophisticated entertaining providing privacy, convenience and security. Ideal for the perfect “lock and leave” seasonal home or full time residence. Offering double masters plus two additional bedrooms, all rooms have access to the expansive patio with spa, BBQ and gorgeous views of Black Mountain and natural desert open space. Spacious rooms, eat-in kitchen, walk-in closets this home has it all.

17. 2017-08-15
    soldstatus $600,000

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Welcome to The Boulders ...... internationally known and sought after luxury resort living in the Sonoran Desert ! This unique and rare 4 bedroom/3 Bath patio home is a classic southwest contemporary designed for sophisticated entertaining providing privacy, convenience and security. Ideal for the perfect “lock and leave” seasonal home or full time residence. Offering double masters plus two additional bedrooms, all rooms have access to the expansive patio with spa, BBQ and gorgeous views of Black Mountain and natural desert open space. Spacious rooms, eat-in kitchen, walk-in closets this home has it all.

18. 2017-05-07
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Welcome to The Boulders ...... internationally known and sought after luxury resort living in the Sonoran Desert ! This unique and rare 4 bedroom/3 Bath patio home is a classic southwest contemporary designed for sophisticated entertaining providing privacy, convenience and security. Ideal for the perfect “lock and leave” seasonal home or full time residence. Offering double masters plus two additional bedrooms, all rooms have access to the expansive patio with spa, BBQ and gorgeous views of Black Mountain and natural desert open space. Spacious rooms, eat-in kitchen, walk-in closets this home has it all.

19. 2017-05-02
    listed $625,000 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Welcome to The Boulders ...... internationally known and sought after luxury resort living in the Sonoran Desert ! This unique and rare 4 bedroom/3 Bath patio home is a classic southwest contemporary designed for sophisticated entertaining providing privacy, convenience and security. Ideal for the perfect “lock and leave” seasonal home or full time residence. Offering double masters plus two additional bedrooms, all rooms have access to the expansive patio with spa, BBQ and gorgeous views of Black Mountain and natural desert open space. Spacious rooms, eat-in kitchen, walk-in closets this home has it all.

20. 2017-04-18
    historical
21. 2017-02-03
    price $635,000
22. 2016-04-18
    listed $665,000 Active
23. 1990-08-14
    soldstatus $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,165 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,910 · $742/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,745/yr (+$479/mo · 181.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $139,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,621
• − Property taxes: −$3,165
• − Insurance: −$6,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,152
• − Management: −$11,152
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$39,273
• Taxable loss: −$10,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,479
• After-tax cash flow: $15,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+542.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $1,350,000 ARMLS
• 2017-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-15 Sold (MLS) $600,000 ARMLS
• 2017-05-07 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-05-02 Listed $625,000 ARMLS
• 2017-04-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-02-03 Price Changed $635,000 ARMLS
• 2016-04-18 Listed $665,000 ARMLS
• 1990-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,165 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.