435 18th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$104,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1900 3,436 sqft lot $62/sqft · 16% above area Est $91k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated in the exclusive short-term rental area of Niagara Falls, NY. This residence features attractive vinyl siding, all new vinyl windows, a 5-year-old roof, fresh drywall, and paint, combining modern style with lasting quality. The fully renovated kitchen and bathrooms provide a contemporary feel, while the spacious basement offers ample storage and houses all updated mechanicals. Enjoy the charming covered open front porch and a detached 2-car garage, accessible from the alley, ensuring convenient property access. This home is perfect for both personal living and investment in a prime location!

Key facts

• 5-year-old roof
• New vinyl windows
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• VINYL SIDING
• NEW VINYL WINDOWS
• 5-YEAR-OLD ROOF
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $105k implies a 438% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $95,459 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.32%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,608
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: 15.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1968 Welch Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-1%)	3mo	$139,900	$84	81
1791 Welch Ave	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,700 (+1%)	8mo	$35,200	$21	81
1424 Osborne Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,722 (+2%)	4mo	$70,000	$41	75
2526 Walnut Ave	0.53mi	4/1.0	1,664 (-1%)	3mo	$112,000	$67	71
2426 Falls St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-1%)	7mo	$75,000	$45	69
451 20th St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	2mo	$85,000	$59	64
435 13th St	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	2mo	$40,000	$26	63
2517 Welch Ave	0.47mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+1%)	8mo	$105,000	$62	61
527 23rd St	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,488 (-11%)	1mo	$154,000	$103	60
2238 Independence Ave	0.58mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,653 (-2%)	10mo	$130,000	$79	53
552 29th St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,573 (-6%)	4mo	$140,000	$89	45
2466 Forest Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,512 (-10%)	8mo	$187,777	$124	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,828
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $30,337
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,468/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,012

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.18mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.42mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	0.51mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.57mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.59mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.59mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.73mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	1d	1	0.98mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $104,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $104,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $104,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $104,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-05-04
   price $104,900 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated in the exclusive short-term rental area of Niagara Falls, NY. This residence features attractive vinyl siding, all new vinyl windows, a 5-year-old roof, fresh drywall, and paint, combining modern style with lasting quality. The fully renovated kitchen and bathrooms provide a contemporary feel, while the spacious basement offers ample storage and houses all updated mechanicals. Enjoy the charming covered open front porch and a detached 2-car garage, accessible from the alley, ensuring convenient property access. This home is perfect for both personal living and investment in a prime location!

9. 2026-04-27
   price $114,000 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated in the exclusive short-term rental area of Niagara Falls, NY. This residence features attractive vinyl siding, all new vinyl windows, a 5-year-old roof, fresh drywall, and paint, combining modern style with lasting quality. The fully renovated kitchen and bathrooms provide a contemporary feel, while the spacious basement offers ample storage and houses all updated mechanicals. Enjoy the charming covered open front porch and a detached 2-car garage, accessible from the alley, ensuring convenient property access. This home is perfect for both personal living and investment in a prime location!

10. 2026-04-06
    price $119,000 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated in the exclusive short-term rental area of Niagara Falls, NY. This residence features attractive vinyl siding, all new vinyl windows, a 5-year-old roof, fresh drywall, and paint, combining modern style with lasting quality. The fully renovated kitchen and bathrooms provide a contemporary feel, while the spacious basement offers ample storage and houses all updated mechanicals. Enjoy the charming covered open front porch and a detached 2-car garage, accessible from the alley, ensuring convenient property access. This home is perfect for both personal living and investment in a prime location!

11. 2026-03-09
    listed $124,900 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated in the exclusive short-term rental area of Niagara Falls, NY. This residence features attractive vinyl siding, all new vinyl windows, a 5-year-old roof, fresh drywall, and paint, combining modern style with lasting quality. The fully renovated kitchen and bathrooms provide a contemporary feel, while the spacious basement offers ample storage and houses all updated mechanicals. Enjoy the charming covered open front porch and a detached 2-car garage, accessible from the alley, ensuring convenient property access. This home is perfect for both personal living and investment in a prime location!

12. 2019-03-15
    soldstatus $19,500 Closed Sale or Rented 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Take a look at this 4 bedroom, 1 bath 2 story vinyl sided home. Full front porch, 2 car garage. Price reflects repairs needed. Sold 'as is'. BRING OFFERS!!! 'Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in as is condition. '

13. 2019-01-25
    status Pending Sale 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Take a look at this 4 bedroom, 1 bath 2 story vinyl sided home. Full front porch, 2 car garage. Price reflects repairs needed. Sold 'as is'. BRING OFFERS!!! 'Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in as is condition. '

14. 2019-01-11
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Take a look at this 4 bedroom, 1 bath 2 story vinyl sided home. Full front porch, 2 car garage. Price reflects repairs needed. Sold 'as is'. BRING OFFERS!!! 'Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in as is condition. '

15. 2018-12-10
    listed $22,900 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Take a look at this 4 bedroom, 1 bath 2 story vinyl sided home. Full front porch, 2 car garage. Price reflects repairs needed. Sold 'as is'. BRING OFFERS!!! 'Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in as is condition. '

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,468 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,468 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$2,468
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $2,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$585
• After-tax cash flow: $3,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+358.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $104,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $114,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $119,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-03-15 Sold (MLS) $19,500 WNYREIS
• 2019-01-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-01-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-12-10 Listed $22,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,468 · +41.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.