50 Summer Homes Dr · Black Canyon City, AZ 86343

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily · 206 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $73k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

* VACATION HOME USE ONLY * Cash Sale * Home cannot be used as primary residence * Renting is prohibited. Home is on USFS leased land. Nearby Horsethief Basin Lake is great for hiking and kayaking. 2 bedroom 1 bath charming cabin in the summer homes community. Beautiful wood burning fireplace complete with built in shelves. Screened in front porch is perfect for enjoying the peaceful area. Seasonal creek right off the back porch! Outdoor storage shed is great for storing tools and firewood. Window unit ac's to keep you cool in the summer. Rainwater capture system to save you trips to the well. Located 7 miles from the town of Crown King, this little home has lots to offer. Prescott Nat

Key facts

• Seasonal creek
• Outdoor storage shed
• Built 1971

Tags

• HORSETHIEF BASIN LAKE
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• SEASONAL CREEK
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHED
• RAINWATER CAPTURE SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.9% in Black Canyon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zoned schools: Crown King Elementary School (10 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.66%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Summer Homes Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	850 (0%)	1mo	$73,000	$86	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $25,758
• Equity at exit: $43,816

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $71,402
• Equity at exit: $70,641

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86343

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $211	+0% $180	+5% $149	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $140	+0% $180	+5% $220	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $202	base $180	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-17
   listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$966
• − Management: −$966
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $1,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Black Canyon City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #21226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 140

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Slovak 14% Lithuanian 8%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Current HPI: 230.8682
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $89,000 ARMLS